Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Des Moines, IA

153 
WWUS53 KDMX 010000
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

IAC123-157-010010-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140401T0015Z/
MAHASKA IA-POWESHIEK IA-
700 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MAHASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN POWESHIEK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4151 9241 4131 9241 4120 9260 4131 9272
      4166 9230 4151 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 228DEG 55KT 4155 9230 

$$

JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

WINDS CONTINUE AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP AS SCHEDULED THROUGH
23Z.  EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. INITIALLY A
FINE LINE...NOW HAVE ELEVATED CORES TO 40 DBZ IN THE 5-10K LAYER.
SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO NOT CONTINUE WITH LINE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES  MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE THE CONVECTION LAST ALL THAT LONG.  SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
01Z.  COLD AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.  MOS TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL...BUT NOT THAT FAR OFF.  WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT LOOKING WELL PLACED.  WILL BRING IN CLOUDS AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW.  NAM 925 FORECASTS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER TO BEGIN EXTENDED AS CAA WRAPS
AROUND RETREATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AS LOW LIFTS
NE...WAA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL BE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A TWO PHASED SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT
CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY. WAA CONTINUES...HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT AND HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES...WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK SOMEWHAT ON OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM...THOUGH GFS REMAINS
A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH PRECIPITATION LIFTING MUCH MORE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE IN LINE WITH
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FORECAST. IF MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
VERIFIES...MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR TO THE NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING IN THAT AREA GIVEN FURTHER NORTH TREND OF
GFS.

ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW...THOUGH PLACEMENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH SECONDARY LOW AND
THEREFORE MAY SEE DRY SLOT ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FRIDAY...WHILE GFS KEEPS BROAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ANTICIPATE MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL
AS RAIN...THOUGH COULD SEE SNOW IN THE NORTH OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND LOW FOR
FRIDAY WILL GIVE BEST CHANCE FOR MIX OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH EITHER PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. THOUGH AS NOTED...WILL SEE BREAKS AT
TIMES AS WELL.

SYSTEMS WILL LIFT OUT BY SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
IN...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH INTO SOUTHER
PLAINS...WITH VARIED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS AGAIN HAVE POOR AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KALO AND KOTM NEAR TAF
BEGINNING PERIOD THEN MOVE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTS WEST FOR
ALL AREAS TONIGHT. A WIDE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-
MARION-POLK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-
BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>049-011100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
355 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM U.S. HIGHWAY
169 EAST. THEY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
UNTIL 6 PM.

IAZ050-062-075-085-086-096-097-011100-
TAMA-POWESHIEK-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
355 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM.

IAZ057>061-070>074-081>084-092>095-011100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-
MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
355 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 169 UNTIL THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 6 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
451 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

IAZ006-007-016-017-025-026-036-037-047>049-010000-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOREST CITY...LAKE MILLS...NORTHWOOD...
MANLY...GARNER...BRITT...KANAWHA...MASON CITY...CLEAR LAKE...
EAGLE GROVE...CLARION...BELMOND...HAMPTON...WEBSTER CITY...
IOWA FALLS...ELDORA...ACKLEY...BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN
451 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...

AT 445 PM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM AROUND AMES
NORTH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH 600 PM AND MOVE THROUGH THE I35 CORRIDOR
NORTH OF AMES. SOME CITIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS
INCLUDE IOWA FALLS...HAMPTON...MASON CITY AND NORTHWOOD.

THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
BELOW AN INCH IN DIAMETER. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER SO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
604 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

IAZ027-038-039-050-312330-
TAMA-BLACK HAWK-BUTLER-GRUNDY-
604 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAMA...BLACK HAWK...BUTLER AND
GRUNDY COUNTIES...

AT 600 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CENTERED OVER CONRAD...OR
10 MILES SOUTH OF GRUNDY CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WATERLOO AREA THROUGH 645 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATERLOO...CEDAR FALLS...GRUNDY CENTER...EVANSDALE...LA PORTE CITY...
HUDSON...TRAER...REINBECK...DIKE...ELK RUN HEIGHTS...CONRAD...
CROSSROADS MALL...UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN IOWA MAIN CAMPUS...HAWKEYE
COMMUNITY COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...WATERLOO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...COLLEGE
SQUARE MALL...DOWNTOWN WATERLOO...UNI-DOME AND MCLEOD CENTER...
RIVERFRONT STADIUM AND GLADBROOK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 73.

LAT...LON 4230 9214 4230 9229 4224 9230 4207 9276
      4221 9277 4221 9295 4223 9298 4251 9294
      4263 9256 4263 9209 4232 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 231DEG 47KT 4222 9282

JOHNSON