Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Warren County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

WARM FRONT...THOUGH DIFFUSE...EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SENR IA.  THAT LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE CONVECTION
ARES AND THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AT H8 AND WITH THE
PWAT...THOUGH EACH OF THOSE AREA A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST.  VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LI'S TO -12 AND CAPE ABOVE 6000 J/KG.
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EASY TO
DEVELOP.  WILL EXTEND THE TOR WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
SHORTLY.  ALSO GO WITH A FFA U.S. HIGHWAY 30 ON NORTH TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL I AREAS WHERE THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN QUITE WET.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. INITIALLY TUESDAY PUSH OF
MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE AREA CAPPED ALOFT DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON THE
EDGE OF THE CAP. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH EASTWARD AND
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED MODELS BRING
THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATTERN REMAINS A BIT MORE MUDDLED
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO LEND TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST AGAIN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAINING VFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. BAND OF MVFR CIGS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THE ONLY
EXCEPTION. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL
EXIT...WITH NEXT ROUND MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD. THIS WILL ROLL
ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TRIED TO TIME IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AREA. GUSTY WLY WINDS ON TUE WITH VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS UNDER BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE MOST PART OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUN 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...MS JUN 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
555 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-171100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
555 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE. MORE
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT
EAST THIS EVENING. INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR DUE TO INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-171100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
555 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE. MORE
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN IOWA THEN SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. INITIAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ044-161745-
CRAWFORD IA-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 1159 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF UTE...OR 17 MILES WEST OF DENISON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENISON...DUNLAP...SCHLESWIG...DOW CITY...CHARTER OAK...KIRON...
DELOIT...RICKETTS...ARION AND DENISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9567 4221 9533 4206 9523 4186 9552
      4186 9566 4187 9567 4195 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 214DEG 47KT 4198 9569

REV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
257 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ048-049-060-061-073-074-162100-
JASPER IA-WARREN IA-STORY IA-POLK IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-
257 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...THUNDERSTORM HAD FORMED OVER CENTRAL IOWA...

AT 256 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF PLEASANT HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DES MOINES...ANKENY...NEWTON...ALTOONA...PLEASANT HILL...NEVADA...
CARLISLE...BONDURANT...MITCHELLVILLE...COLFAX...MONROE...
PLEASANTVILLE...PRAIRIE CITY...BAXTER...PRAIRIE MEADOWS...IOWA
SPEEDWAY...IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS...ADVENTURELAND AMUSEMENT PARK...
MAXWELL AND COLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES .

&&

LAT...LON 4135 9326 4142 9361 4204 9349 4193 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 206DEG 41KT 4155 9336

JOHNSON