Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Des Moines, IA

889 
WGUS73 KDMX 101124
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
624 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

IAC039-053-117-123-125-181-185-101132-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140910T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN IA-MARION IA-WAYNE IA-MAHASKA IA-LUCAS IA-CLARKE IA-
DECATUR IA-
624 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WARREN...MARION...NORTHERN WAYNE...
MAHASKA...LUCAS...EASTERN CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED 
TO POSE A THREAT. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS OF WARREN...MARION...CLARKE 
AND MAHASKA COUNTIES ARE EXPERIENCING CONTINUED FLOODING EARLY 
TODAY. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE IN EFFECT 
FOR 12 HOURS...UNLESS CANCELED EARLIER ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. 

LAT...LON 4075 9391 4102 9371 4114 9380 4151 9378
      4151 9342 4149 9340 4150 9335 4148 9334
      4151 9333 4151 9241 4116 9241 4116 9310
      4076 9310

$$

REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1246 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AS A LOW OVER KANSAS DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
LIFT ACROSS THE STATE IN A BROAD WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. DAMAGING WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER WE ARE CURRENTLY VERY
UNSTABLE AND SHEAR IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ACROSS IOWA IT WILL DRAG
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE.  THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET COINCIDENT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
IN THE LOW LEVELS.  IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE STATE
THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS.
THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED THROUGH ABOVE 500 MB
AND PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES I AM EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO CONGEAL
INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND DUMP SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL IOWA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RELATIVE TO TONIGHT...QUITE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. MAIN FOCUS IS ON
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING OFF AT 13Z WED...THE NAM REMAINS A SLOW OUTLIER VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS...SO HAVE DISCARDED ITS OUTPUT IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE OF QPF AND OTHER
PARAMETERS THE NAM SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. MODELS SHOWING SYSTEM EXITING
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 15Z WED. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...HOLDING PVS FCST FOR WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION STILL SHOWS LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS
TO MAINTAIN JUNKY SC/ST DECK. MAY BE -RA/DZ THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT CHANGES SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE INTO WISCONSIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE WITH YESTERDAY/S RUN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE AROUND 20 KTS UP
TO 850 WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SFC. WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL COME ABUNDANT CAA. IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
OUR CWA...850 MB TEMPS TO START THE DAY NEAR 15C AND FINISH THE
DAY NEAR 5C. THIS MEANS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
HOLDING STEADY TO WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES.

850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY...THESE 850MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -2
TO -3 STD DEV...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. RECORD LOW MAX IN DES MOINES
IS 60 AND AM THINKING WE WILL BE VERY NEAR TO THAT NUMBER. THE WEAK
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS HINTED AT IN YESTERDAY/S
RUNS IS NO LONGER PRESENT. IN AGREEMENT WITH FEATURE BEING NIXED AND
HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A MODERATELY STRONG
IMPULSE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING INTO THE CWA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE AND...SUBSEQUENTLY...POPS.

FOR SATURDAY...GFS STILL SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER CWA AT 12Z. EURO STILL A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE
HIGH...THE SAME OUTPUT AS YESTERDAY/S RUNS. 850MB TEMPS SLATED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C. WITH HIGH NEARBY...AM EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S FCST.
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. TENDER
VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THESE TEMPERATURES AND IF THEY
HOLD...FROST MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED.

MODELS HAVE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN US TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS RELIABLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL MODELS TRYING TO PUSH A QUICK MOVING TROUGH
THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY ON ITS HEELS. VERY TOUGH TO FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ANY DIRECTION THIS FAR OUT. SO WILL HOLD CONSENSUS
OUTPUT UNTIL JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO DEVIATE PRESENTS ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A SWITCH
TO BREEZY NW WINDS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY AND LINGER THROUGH WED MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL
LAST MUCH OF THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW GUSTS OVER 30KTS LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THAT MAY RISE TO WITHIN BANKFULL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES FOR AN HOUR OR MORE MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES AS
WELL LEADING TO STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN FIELDS AS
WELL AS LOW WATER CROSSINGS BOTH IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...BEERENDS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-102115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
403 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW LINGERING NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN ISOLATED AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1024 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PELLA                   41.41N 92.92W
09/09/2014  M2.65 INCH       MARION             IA   PUBLIC

            TOTAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1026 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       REDDING                 40.61N 94.39W
09/09/2014  E2.50 INCH       RINGGOLD           IA   PUBLIC

            TOTAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1038 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OSKALOOSA               41.29N 92.64W
09/09/2014  E3.50 INCH       MAHASKA            IA   PUBLIC

            TOTAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1100 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE AFTON             41.03N 94.18W
09/09/2014  M3.66 INCH       UNION              IA   MESONET

            TOTAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE EXLINE             40.69N 92.77W
09/09/2014  M3.32 INCH       APPANOOSE          IA   MESONET

            TOTAL FOR THE DAY. 2.79 INCHES IN THE LAST 6
            HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRING HILL             41.41N 93.65W
09/09/2014  M4.20 INCH       WARREN             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TOTAL FOR THE DAY.

&&