Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Des Moines, IA

170 
WGUS73 KDMX 100049
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
749 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

IAC039-053-117-123-125-181-185-100545-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-140910T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN IA-MARION IA-WAYNE IA-MAHASKA IA-LUCAS IA-CLARKE IA-
DECATUR IA-
749 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR
WARREN...MARION...NORTHERN WAYNE...MAHASKA...LUCAS...EASTERN CLARKE
AND NORTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 747 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE PRODUCED ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...WITH HEAVY RANI STILL FALLING IN SOME LOCATIONS. FLASH 
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DES MOINES...WEST DES MOINES...INDIANOLA...OSKALOOSA...PELLA...
NORWALK...KNOXVILLE...CHARITON...LEON...CORYDON...CARLISLE...
MONROE...PLEASANTVILLE...NEW SHARON...MELCHER-DALLAS...EDDYVILLE...
KNOXVILLE RACEWAY...LAKE RED ROCK...AVENUE OF THE SAINTS EVENT CENTER
AND RATHBUN LAKE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4075 9391 4102 9371 4114 9380 4151 9378
      4151 9342 4149 9340 4150 9335 4148 9334
      4151 9333 4151 9241 4116 9241 4116 9310
      4076 9310

$$

LEE

713 
WGUS73 KDMX 100241
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

IAC039-053-117-123-125-181-185-100545-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-140910T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN IA-MARION IA-WAYNE IA-MAHASKA IA-LUCAS IA-CLARKE IA-
DECATUR IA-
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR
WARREN...MARION...NORTHERN WAYNE...MAHASKA...LUCAS...EASTERN CLARKE
AND NORTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 939 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT UP TO 3 TO 5 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITH 
FLASH FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DES MOINES...WEST DES MOINES...INDIANOLA...OSKALOOSA...PELLA...
NORWALK...KNOXVILLE...CHARITON...LEON...CORYDON...CARLISLE...
MONROE...PLEASANTVILLE...NEW SHARON...MELCHER-DALLAS...EDDYVILLE...
KNOXVILLE RACEWAY...LAKE RED ROCK...AVENUE OF THE SAINTS EVENT CENTER
AND RATHBUN LAKE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4075 9391 4102 9371 4114 9380 4151 9378
      4151 9342 4149 9340 4150 9335 4148 9334
      4151 9333 4151 9241 4116 9241 4116 9310
      4076 9310

$$

LEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AS A LOW OVER KANSAS DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
LIFT ACROSS THE STATE IN A BROAD WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. DAMAGING WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER WE ARE CURRENTLY VERY
UNSTABLE AND SHEAR IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ACROSS IOWA IT WILL DRAG
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE.  THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET COINCIDENT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
IN THE LOW LEVELS.  IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE STATE
THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS.
THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED THROUGH ABOVE 500 MB
AND PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES I AM EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO CONGEAL
INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND DUMP SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL IOWA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RELATIVE TO TONIGHT...QUITE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. MAIN FOCUS IS ON
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING OFF AT 13Z WED...THE NAM REMAINS A SLOW OUTLIER VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS...SO HAVE DISCARDED ITS OUTPUT IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE OF QPF AND OTHER
PARAMETERS THE NAM SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. MODELS SHOWING SYSTEM EXITING
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 15Z WED. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...HOLDING PVS FCST FOR WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION STILL SHOWS LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS
TO MAINTAIN JUNKY SC/ST DECK. MAY BE -RA/DZ THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT CHANGES SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE INTO WISCONSIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE WITH YESTERDAY/S RUN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE AROUND 20 KTS UP
TO 850 WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SFC. WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL COME ABUNDANT CAA. IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
OUR CWA...850 MB TEMPS TO START THE DAY NEAR 15C AND FINISH THE
DAY NEAR 5C. THIS MEANS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
HOLDING STEADY TO WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES.

850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY...THESE 850MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -2
TO -3 STD DEV...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. RECORD LOW MAX IN DES MOINES
IS 60 AND AM THINKING WE WILL BE VERY NEAR TO THAT NUMBER. THE WEAK
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS HINTED AT IN YESTERDAY/S
RUNS IS NO LONGER PRESENT. IN AGREEMENT WITH FEATURE BEING NIXED AND
HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A MODERATELY STRONG
IMPULSE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING INTO THE CWA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE AND...SUBSEQUENTLY...POPS.

FOR SATURDAY...GFS STILL SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER CWA AT 12Z. EURO STILL A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE
HIGH...THE SAME OUTPUT AS YESTERDAY/S RUNS. 850MB TEMPS SLATED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C. WITH HIGH NEARBY...AM EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S FCST.
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. TENDER
VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THESE TEMPERATURES AND IF THEY
HOLD...FROST MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED.

MODELS HAVE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN US TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS RELIABLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL MODELS TRYING TO PUSH A QUICK MOVING TROUGH
THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY ON ITS HEELS. VERY TOUGH TO FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ANY DIRECTION THIS FAR OUT. SO WILL HOLD CONSENSUS
OUTPUT UNTIL JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO DEVIATE PRESENTS ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING OVER SW IA IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH 00Z.  LATER TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER KS WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO IA AND DEEPEN.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z WED.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT.  PRIOR TO THAT...BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHERLY SFC WIND AT 15-25KTS WILL BECOME NWRLY AND
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THAT MAY RISE TO WITHIN BANKFULL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES FOR AN HOUR OR MORE MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES AS
WELL LEADING TO STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN FIELDS AS
WELL AS LOW WATER CROSSINGS BOTH IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...BEERENDS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-102115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
403 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW LINGERING NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN ISOLATED AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
527 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             2 S FREMONT             41.18N 92.43W
09/09/2014  E0.50 INCH       MAHASKA            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             LENOX                   40.88N 94.56W
09/09/2014  E2.00 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
559 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE CORNING           41.07N 94.69W
09/09/2014                   ADAMS              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY DAMAGE TO A MACHINE SHED AND TREES DAMAGED BY
            STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

MS SEP 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
621 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MURRAY                  41.04N 93.95W
09/09/2014  M2.06 INCH       CLARKE             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FELL IN 38 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORWALK                 41.50N 93.68W
09/09/2014                   WARREN             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER 3 TO 5 FEET DEEP ON CHERRY STREET. STREET BARACADED

&&

MS SEP 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHANNON CITY            40.91N 94.26W
09/09/2014  E3.00 INCH       UNION              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FELL IN THE LAST 2 HOURS

&&