Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

WARM FRONT...THOUGH DIFFUSE...EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SE IA.  THAT LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE CONVECTION
ARES AND THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AT H8 AND WITH THE
PWAT...THOUGH EACH OF THOSE AREA A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST.  VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LI'S TO -12 AND CAPE ABOVE 6000 J/KG.
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EASY TO
DEVELOP.  WILL EXTEND THE TOR WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
SHORTLY.  ALSO GO WITH A FFA U.S. HIGHWAY 30 ON NORTH TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL I AREAS WHERE THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN QUITE WET.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. INITIALLY TUESDAY PUSH OF
MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE AREA CAPPED ALOFT DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON THE
EDGE OF THE CAP. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH EASTWARD AND
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED MODELS BRING
THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATTERN REMAINS A BIT MORE MUDDLED
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO LEND TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST AGAIN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/00Z
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

STRONG STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY SINK TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BY 06Z. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STORMS AND NON THUNDERSTORM SFC WND G40KTS IS POSSIBLE.  IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG WITH 1/4SM VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE LOW VSBY CONDITIONS ARE VERY HIT OR MISS SO THEY WERE NOT
FORECAST IN TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUN 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-171000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
333 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ070>075-081>086-092>097-171000-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
333 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

IAZ044>050-057>062-171000-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
333 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
806 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAMPTON                 42.74N 93.20W
06/16/2014  M2.85 INCH       FRANKLIN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT TOTAL FOR TODAY THUS FAR.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
811 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GENEVA                  42.67N 93.13W
06/16/2014                   FRANKLIN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATED 75 MPH WIND
            GUST TSTM WND DMG DURATION 20 HOURS 5
            MINUTES OBSERVER LOCATION GENEVA

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
814 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEAR LAKE              43.14N 93.37W
06/16/2014                   CERRO GORDO        IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. THREE TO 4 INCH
            TREE LIMBS DOWN AND BLOCKING THE ROAD.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
820 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             42.78N 92.67W
06/16/2014                   BUTLER             IA   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE IN CLARKSVILLE
            TO HOMES...TREES AND OUTBUILDINGS. UNKNOWN
            IF IT WAS CAUSED BY WINDS OR A TORNADO.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
822 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TORNADO          4 W TRIPOLI             42.80N 92.34W
06/16/2014                   BREMER             IA   PUBLIC

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
833 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERLOO AIRPORT        42.56N 92.40W
06/16/2014  M69.00 MPH       BLACK HAWK         IA   ASOS

            SUSTAINED 60 KNOTS FOR 3 MINUTES

&&

PODRAZIK