Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

OUR PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN OF HOT...HUMID...AND STORMY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS THE DMX CWA. WE WILL
HEDGE LARGELY TOWARDS PERSISTENCE AS A BASELINE STARTING POINT.
LARGE SCALE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND IN COMBINATION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST...THE DMX CWA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 850 MB. ONCE AGAIN THE GULF WILL BE OPEN.

AT 00Z THURSDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A VERY SIMILAR IN
LOCATION TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THAT IT WILL BE
ORIENTED IN A NW TO SE FASHION. SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA BUT VARY SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING.  THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH. THE
EURO AND SREF SEEM TO SPLIT THE TWO...SO GOING WITH A MODEL
BLEND. BY 06Z THU...FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NW TO SE NEAR THE DES
MOINES METRO. IN COMPARING THE DYNAMICS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S SETUP
TO THIS PAST TUESDAY NIGHT/S SETUP...THINGS LOOK VERY SIMILAR.
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING SEVERE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ALONG AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IT IS ALSO WORTH MAKING NOTE
OF FORECAST HEAT VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINT VALUES
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH...AND POSSIBLY EXCEED...100 DEGREES IN LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80.

IOWA TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR YET ANOTHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNCAPPED ONCE AGAIN BY THE
PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL MODELS TRYING TO BRING AN AREA OF
VORTICITY THROUGH AHEAD OF AN AREA OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALOFT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ASCENT. PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN 1 TO 2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL. SHEAR VALUES NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE. ALL OF THIS
LEADING TO MORE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHED AS THIS IS A DIFFERENT SET UP THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BORDER NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP
PLACE IOWA IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE REGION IS PRONE TO BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES COMING OFF OF THE ROCKIES. IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO
HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL WEEKEND LONG UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS PRESENTLY SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING
TO BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR THE MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AND...SUBSEQUENTLY...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DROP 850 MB TEMPS
FROM THE +22C RANGE OF THIS WEEK BACK DOWN TO THE +14C RANGE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MID
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DROP INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 30. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY BACK
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER WITH EACH RAIN EVENT. MOST
OF THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IS LOOKING AT 1 HOUR FFG OF 1.25
TO 1.75 INCHES WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. 3 HOUR
GUIDANCE IS 1.88 TO ABOUT 3 INCHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY OVER MORE OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

RECENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH SOME RIVERS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE DES MOINES
RIVER BASIN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

CONCERN IS THE IMPACT OF SUCCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENTS ON THE
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. QPF
ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
PROLONG THE FLOODING IN LOCATIONS ALREADY WARNED...AND MAY RESULT IN
NEW FLOODING. FOR EXAMPLE...QPF ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN...WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE DOWN TO SAYLORVILLE RESERVOIR.
THEY SHOW MINOR TO LOW-END MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ON OTHER
STREAMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

DISCUSSION....KOTENBERG
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
744 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-033-034-036>039-044>050-057>062-
070>075-081>086-092>097-191245-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
SAC-CALHOUN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
744 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-035-191245-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WEBSTER-
744 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY.

KS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

IAZ025-026-037-181345-
FRANKLIN IA-WRIGHT IA-HARDIN IA-
647 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...TRAINING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DROPPED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN WRIGHT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DROP ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS RAIN...COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED SOILS...WILL RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ELEVATE
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IOWA FALLS...HAMPTON...CLARION...BELMOND...ACKLEY...ELM LAKE...BIG
WALL LAKE...DOWS...LATIMER...COULTER...ALEXANDER...GENEVA...ROWAN...
BRADFORD...HANSELL...CHAPIN...POPEJOY...GALT...BELMOND MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT AND BEEDS LAKE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...INTERSECTIONS...AND OTHER LOW-LYING
AREAS. REPORT ANY FLOODED ROADS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4250 9303 4260 9374 4290 9373 4285 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 294DEG 23KT 4261 9334 4278 9430

SKOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
948 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WHITTEMORE              43.06N 94.42W
06/18/2014                   KOSSUTH            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALMOST ALL STREETS IN TOWN ARE UNDERWATER DUE TO A
            COMBINATION OF OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN AND THE SEWER
            SYSTEM BEING OVERWHELMED. MANY HOMES AND BUSINESSES HAVE
            WATER IN THEIR BASEMENTS. TIME OF WHEN THE FLOODING BEGAN
            IS ESTIMATED.

&&

SKOW