Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  30  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-302000-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-302000-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             7 SE BRIMSON            47.21N 91.76W
07/29/2014  M1.00 INCH       LAKE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTY WINDS

&&

WL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIZ002-292045-
BAYFIELD-
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...STRONG STORM APPROACHING PORT WING...

AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT WING...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PORT WING BY 330 PM...

SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4677 9155 4678 9149 4677 9145 4680 9141
      4680 9138 4683 9134 4668 9114 4658 9147

GRANING

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