Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CU WERE BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER NE MN WHILE NW WI WAS MAINLY CLEAR. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
BEGINNING TO SEND CLOUDS TOWARD NORTHERN MN. A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH AND MAKING SOME INROADS INTO
WESTERN MN. AS THIS TROF MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MOVE THE
POPS EWD WITH THE ADVANCING SFC TROF.

A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE TROF TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NW MN BY 06Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT/CLOSED LOW THIS
EVENING. AFTER 06Z...THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXITS THE FA ENDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF NO ACTIVITY AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DRY SLOT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS DRY SLOT AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS ARE RESERVED FOR
LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD CORE LOW DROPS OVER THE FA.

ON SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER NW WI IN THE MORNING BEFORE
OPENING UP INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. A SFC TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE FA
THROUGH THE DAY. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH CAA AND ON A NLY FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BE THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THERE WILL
BE BREAKS FROM THE PCPN...BUT PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN RAIN IN AWHILE. HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ERN
ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE WEDGED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DRAW IN ENOUGH WARM AIR TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE WEEK.
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TAP INTO THIS WARM AIR MASS TO
AN EXTENT AND ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.
THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 53...WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. RAINFALL AMTS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE 70S ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE 80S BY THUR
AND FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEAK COLD FRONT. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO THESE LOW CHANCES FOR TS. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW AND PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. LIGHT W/SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
VEER TO THE N/NW BY SUN MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  54  75 /  60  40  10  10
INL  55  72  50  75 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  60  73  53  77 /  20  40  10   0
HYR  58  70  47  74 /  40  60  10  10
ASX  57  69  50  75 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-271030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-271030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GSF

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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