Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LINE OF
STORMS...CURRENTLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...TRACKING EAST OVER
THE NW HALF OF MN. THESE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NE
MINNESOTA...THE NORTH SHORE OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS
DOUGLAS AND BURNETT COUNTIES IN FAR NW WISCONSIN. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE HAD ALL YEAR COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.  HEAT
INDEXES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE 95 TO
105 SO FAR TODAY...WITH EVEN DULUTH IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A HEAT
INDEX FROM 95- AROUND 100.  THIS AIRMASS IS AFFECTING MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  A STRONG
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ON UP INTO ONTARIO.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
IS UP OVER  SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH SOME STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE MID
LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.  OUR WARM SECTOR HAS
DEVELOPED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3-5 THOUSAND J/KG IN THIS AIRMASS...BUT
AN EML OVER THIS SAME AREA HAS PLACED A CAP OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND IS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THERE...WHERE
THE INSTABILITY WEAKEST CAP AND BEST FORCING ARE.

TONIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING CONVECTION WISE...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  CURRENT CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GROW AND MOVE EAST...LIKELY ACCELERATING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM
THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY POSSIBILITY
THOUGH WITH ALL THIS HEAT AROUND WEB BULB ZEROS ARE A BIT HIGH.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG STORMS WILL RUN
RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT AREA. THUS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS LOOKING AT A SHOT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA GETTING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  AM CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NEARLY THE
WHOLE CWA OVERNIGHT.   AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ONLY TO RISE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  THE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THUS...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IF TEMPERATURES STAY UP THROUGH SUNSET.  OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NE MINNESOTA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...SUCH AS THE IRON RANGE AND THE ARROWHEAD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND CLEARER SKIES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER.

THE MODELS INDICATE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL GET OFF AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION COULD SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KINL/KBRD AREA AROUND 04Z...REACH
KDLH/KHIB AROUND 06Z...THEN TRACK OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
IMPACT THE KHYR AREA AFTER 09Z.

ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...DAMAGING HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE
KBRD/KINL/KHIB AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STORMS...PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH FOG/BR AND SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  78  55  73 /  90  50   0   0
INL  65  76  52  75 /  90  40   0   0
BRD  70  81  57  78 /  80  30   0   0
HYR  73  82  55  76 /  70  60   0   0
ASX  70  79  54  71 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GRANING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-230115-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
806 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD AREAS AROUND 1000 PM...MOVE INTO
THE HIBBING AND TWIN PORTS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN TRACK OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MORE STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ITASCA COUNTY SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED TO
CALL IN ANY STORM REPORTS OVERNIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-230115-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
806 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE STORMS ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MNZ010-018-025-026-220345-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...BIGFORK...
WALKER...GRAND RAPIDS
944 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND SOME LARGE HAIL...WERE HEADED TOWARD NORTHERN
CASS...ITASCA...AND KOOCHICHING COUNTIES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...BUT THE MAIN LINE SHOULD ARRIVE
BETWEEN 1030 PM AND 11 PM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES. IF
THE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH...WARNINGS FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE NEEDED. SOME AREAS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE
WALKER...GRAND RAPIDS...LEECH LAKE...GRAND
RAPIDS...BIGFORK...MAX...BIG FALLS...BIRCHDALE AND INTERNATIONAL
FALLS.

MELDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1049 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MNZ025-026-033-034-220430-
CROW WING-NORTH CASS-SOUTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-
1049 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING LEECH LAKE...

AT 1046 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WALKER TO 48 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ESTERDY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WALKER BY 1110 PM...
  OSHAWA BY 1115 PM...
  POPLAR AND HACKENSACK BY 1120 PM...
  BREVIK AND WHIPHOLT BY 1125 PM...
  PONTORIA AND CHICKAMAW BEACH BY 1130 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4681 9479 4682 9467 4720 9468 4732 9385
      4630 9454 4635 9466 4635 9472 4640 9478
      4680 9480