Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

AT 300 PM...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. THESE STORMS WERE POSITIONED ALONG A REGION OF SFC
CONFLUENCE/FGEN AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THESE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS NE MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. MEANWHILE...A POTENT WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT OVER NRN WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WHICH
WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING US IN A WET
PATTERN WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM....EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FIRING
UP ALONG INVERTED TROF IN NCENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD.  THE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVR
NRN WI/THE INVERTED TROF AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND PART OF
SATURDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THEN ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF LOWS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AND THE PATTERN WILL BE
REPEATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INCREASING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS QUITE DIFFICULT
BASED ON THE ABSENCE OF CLEARLY DEFINED INITIATION. SHOULD SEE
INITIAL ROUND MAKE ITS AWAY INTO NWRN CWA LATE TODAY...AND THEN
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS TONIGHT. LATER FCSTS CAN TRY TO DELINEATE
BETTER TIMING OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER PRECIP/STRONGER TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  56  47  55 /  80  90  80  50
INL  44  61  44  56 /  70  80  80  50
BRD  48  68  45  60 /  80  80  70  40
HYR  51  74  52  59 /  70  80  80  40
ASX  44  65  48  55 /  80  80  80  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-082015-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
314 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT WOULD SUPPORT TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND EAST TOWARDS THE HAYWARD
LAKES AREA. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY.

LSZ121-140>148-082015-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
314 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
PLEASE REFER TO THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH

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