Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA TO DIMINISH.
THEN...OFF TO THE WEST..EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING WRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN MN WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHILE BEHIND
THE FRONT THEY WERE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THE FRONT COULD BE
SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE WHERE A LINE OF CONVECTION WAS
FORMING. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON EXPECT THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
CREATING THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WAA...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG WITH THE FROPA WILL BE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME VERY STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT MUCAPES ALONG THE FRONT
ARE IN THE 4-5 THOUSAND J/KG RANGE WITH SOME GOOD WIND SHEAR AND
HELICITY..SO SOME DISCREET SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVR NWRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGH POPS IN THE GRIDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THOUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS SINCE COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOUGH DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS
AT BRD DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTIUNE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTROMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
06Z. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AND MAY CAUSE
IFR/MVFR CONSTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  85  60  75 /  50  60  10  30
INL  66  77  57  75 /  50  60  10  40
BRD  69  84  63  79 /  40  40  10  40
HYR  68  86  61  79 /  50  70  10  30
ASX  65  84  59  75 /  50  60  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...STEWART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061145-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG...OR
SEVERE...STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

PLEASE MONITOR THE WEATHER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
OVERNIGHT. A GOOD WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IS TO KEEP A WEATHER
RADIO RECEIVER IN ALERT MODE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-061145-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

STEWART

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ012-052345-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN
LAKE COUNTY...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALICE LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN A VERY
SHORT TIME...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH SMALL HAIL. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...BE ALERT FOR FALLING TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    RURAL LAKE COUNTY AT 630 PM

PREPARE NOW FOR THESE STORMS. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM. KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS
SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR CREEKS. DO NOT TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 4798 9089 4781 9127 4806 9148 4808 9144
      4807 9140 4808 9138 4809 9133 4809 9127
      4817 9114 4819 9109

KK

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