Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
854 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A VORT MAX TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING HAS
KICKED OFF A CLUSTER OF FAST-MOVING STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...TRACKING EAST AT 35 MPH
TOWARDS MILLE LACS LAKE. THE RAIN AND STORMS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT
30 MIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WOUND UP SURFACE LOW NEAR WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TODAY...GRADUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED FROM THE LOW SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BEFORE TRAILING BACK INTO NEBRASKA.  AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA I EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY AS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD AHEAD
OF IT.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE BETTER SHEAR MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND WHILE WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA...THINK THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IS
FAIRLY NARROW...AND LIMITED TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF NOT SEVERE...WE SHOULD HAVE A ROUND OF STORMS AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD THEN GET SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MIXING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARM BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS STILL
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S.  THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO GET
PRETTY BREEZY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO 25KTS.  BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO FALL
OFF...THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID EVENING...LEAVING US
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPPER LOW NORTH OF MN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND UNTIL IT FINALLY BRINGS THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVES OFF ON TUESDAY. ON
MONDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS....THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER STRONG S/WV
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AND FINALLY TUESDAY WILL BE THE FINAL PUSH
FROM THIS LOW AS IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND
CAUSING SOME MORE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
FEW DRY AND COOLER DAYS. WE'LL SEE 8H TEMPS GO FROM 14-16 DEGREES C
DOWN TO AS LOW AS 4 DEGREES ...ACCORDING TO THE COOLER ECMWF. COOL
MORNINGS LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST...RETURN
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0545 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIL EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS FROM
25 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  59  75  55 /  20  20  20  30
INL  79  62  72  53 /  60  60  70  50
BRD  82  62  79  57 /  50  10  30  40
HYR  82  63  81  57 /  30  20  40  30
ASX  84  60  81  56 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
515 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301015-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
515 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING EAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

LSZ121-140>148-301015-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
515 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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