Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

PRIMARY WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF S/W TROF AXIS THAT IS EJECTING ACROSS N
DAKOTA. RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF NEW
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO TO THE WEST OF
FARGO WITHIN STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE IN THE 925-850 LAYER
AUGMENTED BY SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONT TO EVOLVE UPSCALE WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DULUTH CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION..THERE WILL STILL BE
AT LEAST SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA THIS MORNING AND IN PARTICULAR TO THE WEST OF
I35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WE HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE MCS EASTWARD
TIED TO THE MAX IN LOW LEVEL WAA/FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ INTERACTING WITH THE 925-850 FRONTAL ZONE..WHICH WOULD
BRING IT TO THE DULUTH AND WRN LK SUPERIOR AREAS BY LATE MORNING.

A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS..BUT
DYNAMIC/ADVECTIVE PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP-LAYER
CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH AND SOME HEATING DURING THE DAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS IN
A NARROW ZONE TO THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO A SECOND WINDOW OF POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM ELY TO DULUTH TO PINE CITY. INSTABILITY/SHEAR KINEMATIC
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR SVR STORMS AND
SUPERCELLS..WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT..EXCEPT
OVER FAR NRN MN WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE
NIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS. FAIRLY STRONG W/NW SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
SURFACE FLOW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT THUR NIGHT..WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

IT APPEARS FALL LIKE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NEXT
WEEK.

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. I
LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT. THE MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT I AM LESS CONVINCED DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE NW FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THIS...SO I INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

MONDAY COULD FEEL LIKE THE LAST DAY OF SUMMER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
RELATIVELY WARM SW FLOW WHICH HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE LOW
70S. THE FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THIS
IS MORE OF AN ARTIFACT OF PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...SO WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO LOWER PCPN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY EVEN MORE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MIGHT SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
WITH WET AND CLOUDY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THIS
PERIOD IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. I LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO DO SO MUCH MORE WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HIGHS COULD DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY
THURSDAY AS A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE

THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM MORE PREDOMINANT IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY.
GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND ITS WAKE. SOME TERMINALS WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  53  64  47 /  80  20   0  10
INL  73  46  64  41 /  50  30  10  10
BRD  76  52  65  47 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  82  54  65  44 /  60  40   0   0
ASX  80  55  66  47 /  70  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-050915-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
409 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA. MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM ELY
TO CLOQUET...TO PINE CITY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-050915-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
409 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID MORNING INTO TONIGHT
OVER ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...LARGE HAIL AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MNZ037-038-WIZ001-006-041200-
BURNETT-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-PINE-
642 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL IN NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY...

AT 639 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BRUNO...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NICKERSON BY 650 AM...
  KINGSDALE AND CLOVERTON BY 655 AM...
  COZY CORNER BY 700 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4645 9217 4594 9216 4598 9280 4641 9288

GROCHOCINSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MNZ036>038-041200-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-PINE-SOUTH AITKIN-
645 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL IN AITKIN COUNTY...

AT 642 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICE LAKE WILDLIFE REFUGE...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DADS CORNER BY 650 AM...
  RONALD BY 700 AM...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4664 9290 4624 9283 4632 9349 4654 9352

GROCHOCINSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MNZ035-036-041200-
NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
646 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL NEAR AITKIN...

AT 645 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLORY...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KIMBERLY AND GLEN BY 655 AM...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4675 9327 4634 9315 4634 9374 4655 9379

GROCHOCINSKI