Beach Hazards Statement 8, NWS Duluth, MN

423 
WHUS43 KDLH 170313
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MNZ037-170230-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0008.000000T0000Z-140817T0100Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...DULUTH
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH WAVES OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN CASS COUNTY INTO PINE COUNTY...WHILE
ANOTHER LINE FROM NE CARLTON COUNTY INTO PRICE COUNTY. THIS IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO AIDED BY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS TREND.

UPDATE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

DENSE FOG HAS ERODED AND HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY. CHANNELED
AREA OF VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF SFC
FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AT 330 AM...SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALL THAT LINGERED FROM THE EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT DROPPED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AT 330 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR WASKISH...TO THE IRON
RANGE AND INTO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IT WAS A HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WILL ONLY
CARRY CHC/SCT POPS AT BEST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...BRINGING A BIT COOLER AIR NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND A FAIR AMOUNT INLAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME QUIET ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM ONTARIO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM ACTUALLY BRINGS
QPF BACK INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
00Z RUN DID NOT BRING QPF BACK INTO THE CWA YET...AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS IT DRY IN THE CWA AS WELL. SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY.  A SURFACE OW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
ALSO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION WILL START TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SINCE THE TROUGH IS SLOW
MOVING...THERE COULD BE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALLS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THE
THROUGH FOR MORE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.  MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ON
SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INDICATES A SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW AFFECTING
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

FRONTAL BDRY HAS SLIPPED INTO SRN CWA AT MIDDAY WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING FROM KBRD TO KHYR. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE
TRW AT THESE TWO SITES BASED ON INCREASING 88D REFLECTIVITY AND
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. NORTHERN TERMINALS UNDER POST FRONTAL
CLOUD REGIME. A TREND TOWARDS DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS COMMENCED AND
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE CAVEAT IS AT KDLH
WHERE LOW LVL WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED INTO EAST. FCST BDRY LYR WINDS
TURN SOUTHEAST AT KDLH WHICH MAY TEND TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LONGER. WILL HOLD MVFR AT KDLH THROUGH MOST OF TH AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  51  67  51 /  30  10  10  10
INL  73  47  74  49 /  10   0  10  20
BRD  80  57  74  57 /  50  20  10  20
HYR  77  51  75  48 /  30  10  10  10
ASX  73  53  68  52 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-171030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
MINNESOTA AND HIGHWAY 2 IN WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BEACHES IN DULUTH AND SUPERIOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-171030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GSF

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)