Beach Hazards Statement 15, NWS Duluth, MN

279 
WHUS43 KDLH 111701
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1201 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MNZ037-WIZ001-111815-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0015.000000T0000Z-140911T1700Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...DULUTH...SUPERIOR...
AND PARK POINT BEACH
1201 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE TWIN PORTS BEACHES HAS NOW EXPIRED.

$$

DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MUCH QUIETER IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW
WELL OFF TO THE EAST MOVING INTO QUEBEC.  WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH NORTH
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW HAS RETURNED
TO WESTERLIES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
QUEBEC WEST TO MONTANA.  THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN AREA OF MID
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.  IN
FACT...THESE CLOUDS HAVE PUT THE BRAKES ON WHAT HAD BEEN AN
IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  MUCH
OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S...BUT WHERE THE CLOUDS
MOVE IN TEMPS POP BACK UP INTO THE 40S.  STILL...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME UPPER 20S MIN TEMPS OUT OF THE COOPS IN THAT
AREA.

TODAY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AFTER THEY CLEAR WE WILL GET SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON.  WE MAY EVEN GET SOME
SHOWERS OUT OF IT...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME VERY SMALL POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.  STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY DESPITE A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL APART...AND WE
SHOULD GET CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THUS...EXPECT A VERY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MINS IN THE 30S EVERYWHERE...WITH A FEW UPPER
20S. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NEARLY
EVERYWHERE. EXPECT TO NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRE AND ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT CLOUD COVER BEFORE WE DETERMINE WHERE THESE
HEADLINES NEED TO BE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THIS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SOUTH.  THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND LIMITED
THEM TO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE
50S...BUT HOPEFULLY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE WILL NOT FEEL QUITE SO
CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

A LONG WAVE TROF WILL CROSS OVER THE FA AND REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE WILL EB JUST ENOUGH FORCING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FA FOR SOME LOW POPS PRIOR TO 06Z.
SFC/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA BEHIND IT. WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING...THIS MAY PRECLUDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
REGARDLESS...HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MEAN RH/SUGGESTED CLOUD COVER ALSO PLAY
INTO FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FROST POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES. SFC/UPPER RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
ALLOWS A WAA REGIME TO EMERGE...BUT A BIT WEAK. SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WAA
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE TROF WHILE A SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NEAR LAKE OF
THE WOODS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES. THE SFC LOW REACHES NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY.
IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE FA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF IS LACKING MOISTURE
AND ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS. SFC RIDGING AFFECTS
THE FA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT STRONGER WAA IS
EXPECTED AND WARMER MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THURS SEP 11 2014

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLIP THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
MINNESOTA... BUT LOW CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME. UPDATED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN HIB IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS... THOUGH DRYING CONDITIONS MAY PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED. THE NRLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE VFR CIGS AROUND THE HYR TERMINAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE A LESSENING IN THE CLOUD CANOPY
OVERALL... REACHING VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASING TO SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KTS BY TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  38  54  37 /  10  10  10  10
INL  52  28  55  32 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  55  35  55  34 /  20   0  10  10
HYR  54  31  55  31 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  52  35  55  36 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
     019-025-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-121130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
409 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE RIVERS...CREEKS AND
STREAMS REMAIN HIGH THIS MORNING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL TODAY.
HOWEVER...BE ALERT FOR RISING WATERS. REPORT ANY FLOODING TO
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2 IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID 30S. SEE THE LATEST FROST ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA...WITH PATCHY FROST TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FROST...OR A HARD FREEZE...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-121130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
409 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. CHECK THE LATEST NEAR SHORE FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)