Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-220815-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 /209 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES OF UP TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDICES OF UP TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
431 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

KSZ061-062-212230-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-
331 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES...

AT 328 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENDALL...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3826 10153 3799 10130 3788 10171 3808 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 247DEG 24KT 3802 10158

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N SYRACUSE            37.99N 101.75W
07/21/2014  M75 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   AWOS

            A MICROBURST FROM A SMALL THUNDERSTORM LIKELY IMPACTED
            THE SYRACUSE AIRPORT. THE MEASUREMENT CAME FROM THE
            SYRACUSE AWOS STATION.

&&

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

KSZ061-062-074-075-220045-
GRANT-HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KEARNY...NORTHEASTERN STANTON...
NORTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
KENDALL TO BIG BOW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3823 10113 3753 10110 3744 10161 3819 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 269DEG 9KT 3808 10148 3758 10148

RUSSELL