Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Dodge City, KS

031 
WWUS53 KDDC 020305
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1005 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSC025-033-097-020330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140602T0330Z/
KIOWA KS-CLARK KS-COMANCHE KS-
1005 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COMANCHE...NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BUCKLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...AT 958 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 8
         MILES SOUTH OF BUCKLIN.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9988 3747 9989 3748 9908 3727 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 277DEG 27KT 3740 9951

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

SUGDEN

647 
WWUS53 KDDC 020324
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSC025-033-097-020334-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140602T0330Z/
KIOWA KS-CLARK KS-COMANCHE KS-
1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN COMANCHE...
NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM
CDT/930 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3728 9988 3747 9989 3748 9908 3727 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 277DEG 27KT 3738 9933

$$

SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

This mornings upper air analysis showed a shortwave trough over
southeastern Idaho and northern Utah. A 90 knot speed max at 250
millibars associated with the upper wave was helping it progress
east fairly rapidly as indicated by water vapor imagery. At the
surface, a cold front had pushed into northwest Kansas and east
central Colorado while a trough extended south from the front across
far eastern Colorado. Mid level warm advection had sustained some
showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of western and
central Kansas through the morning and early afternoon hours.
Additional thunderstorms were forming along the front and trough
over northwest Kansas and over far eastern Colorado and extreme west
central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

Thunderstorms will continue to develop over far western Kansas
through the next few hours. The airmass has become quite unstable
across southwest and west central Kansas. SPC meso-analysis and 18z
sounding from KDDC showing nearly 2500-3000 J/KG of CAPE. In
addition, 0-6km bulk shear values have been increasing to 40 knots
or more over the region. A few supercells will be likely with
baseball size hail a good possibility. With fairly high bases, the
tornado threat still appears to be fairly small although a few local
spinups could not be ruled out. Appears that the thunderstorms could
evolve into a cluster or line as they move toward central Kansas
this evening, which will increase the threat for damaging straight
line winds.

Most of the thunderstorms should be moving out of central Kansas by
late evening although there could be a few lingering storms in the
Stafford/Pawnee/Pratt/Barber county areas until around midnight.
The cold front is progged to drop farther south into central and
southwest Kansas overnight. Winds are expected to become more
upslope from the northeast later tonight. This could result in some
low stratus developing especially toward central Kansas.

On Monday, the front pushes through all of southwest and south
central Kansas with easterly upslope flow. Model soundings show some
instability mainly to the east and southeast of Dodge City during
the afternoon. Most of the models are hinting at some precipitation
developing during the afternoon so added a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms to that area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

A conditionally unstable atmosphere will still be in place Monday
night and by Tuesday, warming aloft will create much less unstable
conditions if not capped conditions for the entire forecast area.
Initially a stationary boundary or even outflow boundaries from
recent convection will be the focus mechanisms most likely across
the higher moisture/higher dew points zones of south central Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. The trend as a consensus of the various model
data supports a decrease in convective chances into Tuesday as all
of southwest and central Kansas becomes engulfed in the warm sector
of a strong warm front by around 18 UTC Tuesday. Models are in
agreement developing storms along and north of the warm front with
decent support from an approaching wave out of Colorado. So if
storms develop in our area the best chance appears to be through the
I-70 corridor, if at all. The dryline which will likely be
positioned somewhere well west of a Dighton to Liberal line could
become a more localized focus for storms as well Tuesday evening,
however the warm mid level temperatures may for a significant lid,
preventing any convection from occurring. Tuesday will certainly be
windy with a significant surface pressure gradient across the area
as a result of pressure falls over eastern Colorado.

By mid week the pattern begins to break down with the polar jet
segment coming from the west which could mean repeated convective MCS
events for the central high plains region through the end of the
week with very low forecaster confidence on timing since it will be
primarily shortwave driven. Although the confidence levels on
probability of storms is not great, the boundary layer should be
significantly cooler from Thursday into the weekend resulting in
afternoon temperature being relegated to closer to normal or even
cooler than normal for early June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21z over far
western Kansas and become more numerous as they move east through
the late afternoon and evening hours. There is good potential
for strong to severe storms with large hail and wind gusts to
50-60 knots when the storms move through. Once the storms move
past, winds are expected to switch to the north to northeast and
increase during the evening hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings could
develop at the TAF sites overnight with the best potential at
Hays. Any low ceilings that develop should dissipate toward the
latter part of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  87  66  98 /  70  10  20  10
GCK  60  86  64 101 /  60  10  10  10
EHA  60  88  64 100 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  62  88  67 100 /  50  10  10  10
HYS  64  85  63 100 /  70  10  10  20
P28  68  88  68 100 /  70  20  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 /255 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL
SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY FROM THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES BY EARLY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF
60 TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT DETAILS ABOUT THE TYPE
AND LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FOR HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             14 NNW ASHLAND          37.37N 99.87W
06/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
841 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S HAVILAND            37.54N 99.09W
06/01/2014  E60.00 MPH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
903 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             7 SSW MINNEOLA          37.36N 100.07W
06/01/2014  M1.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

            IT HAILED FROM 818 PM UNTIL 828 PM AND COVERED THE
            GROUND.

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SSW MINNEOLA          37.36N 100.07W
06/01/2014  M4.00 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL OF 4.0 INCHES IN 1 1/2 HOURS.

&&

JHUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
910 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             4 NW ASHLAND            37.23N 99.82W
06/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
920 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKLIN                 37.55N 99.63W
06/01/2014                   FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND GST     BUTTERMILK              37.11N 99.34W
06/01/2014  M55 MPH          COMANCHE           KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL