Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Dodge City, KS

276 
WWUS53 KDDC 230341
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSC025-033-119-230400-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-140623T0400Z/
MEADE KS-CLARK KS-COMANCHE KS-
1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COMANCHE...
CLARK AND SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1040 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ACRES...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND...SITKA...PROTECTION...BUTTERMILK...LAKE COLDWATER AND
COLDWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10010 3724 9901 3699 9903 3700 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 276DEG 16KT 3712 9983

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

GERARD

699 
WWUS53 KDDC 230401
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1101 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSC025-033-119-230411-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-140623T0400Z/
MEADE KS-CLARK KS-COMANCHE KS-
1101 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COMANCHE...CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3739 10010 3724 9901 3699 9903 3700 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 276DEG 16KT 3712 9983

$$

GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave ejecting east
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains this
evening setting off thunderstorms across western and central Kansas
overnight. Ample low/mid level moisture remains locked in across
central and much of western Kansas ahead of an approaching cold
front from the northwest. As the upper level shortwave kicks out
into the high plains, an associated jet maxima is projected to
intensify as it shifts eastward across northeastern Colorado into
western Nebraska and northern portions of western Kansas. The
increasing dynamic support aloft, combined with plenty of low
level forcing as the cold front pushes through, will support
thunderstorm development across the area this evening into early
Monday morning. NAM/GFS model soundings show steep low/mid level
lapse rates early this evening with SBCAPE values still in excess
of 2000 J/KG and favorable enough vertical shear profiles to
support the potential for severe storms. The primary threat looks
to be large hail initially with the addition of damaging winds
going into this evening. Enough veering exists that an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Additionally, the potential for periods of heavy rainfall exists
with the strongest storms with PW values well in excess of 1.5
inches based on the model soundings. Localized flooding could be
an issue, especially during the mid to late evening hours. Any
lingering storms Monday morning are expected to taper off west
to east by early to mid afternoon.

Temperatures will easily fall into the 60s(F) tonight across
southwest and much of central Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through western Kansas. The cooler air, not to mention the help of
widespread rainfall, will help drop temperatures. Highs are expected
only up into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon as a north to northeasterly
flow behind the departing front allows slightly cooler air to filter
down into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Several subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a westerly
flow will cross the Central High Plains through mid week. As one
of these disturbances move out into the central plains Monday
night a moist upslope flow will be present north of a stationary
front located in Oklahoma. Convection developing over eastern
Colorado ahead of this next upper level disturbance late Monday
will move east/southeast along the low level moisture axis. At this
time the NAM and GFS differ on where this moisture axis will be but
at this time based on the 700mb baroclinic zone will continue to
favor the slightly further south NAM solution on track and timing
of the Monday night/early Tuesday convection.

By Tuesday night the surface boundary across Oklahoma will begin
to lift north as a warm front with moisture and warm air advection
improving north of this front. Each day this area of moisture and
lift will be a little further north than the previous night so
overnight precipitation chances will gradually shift further north
mid week.

Temperatures will warm in the 850mb to 700mb level mid week and
based on the mixing potential from the model soundings and
temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z Thursday and 00z
Friday the previous forecast still looks on track with
temperatures rebounding back into the 90s. Gusty
south/southeasterly winds can also be expected mid to late week as
an area of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies.
These gusty winds will begin to draw more humid air back to
western Kansas late week and early this weekend. This will give
rise to some widely scattered thunderstorms near the Colorado
border late week. Improving chances for thunderstorms across all
of western Kansas early this weekend as the next more significant
upper level trough approaches the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across central and southwest through the first part of
this TAF forecast period. While hail will be possible with the
storms, a greater threat will be strong wind gusts in excess of 60
mph especially at the Garden City and Dodge City sites this evening.
Once the storms pass, MVFR to IFR ceilings along with MVFR
visibilities are expected to develop and continue until the mid to
late morning hours on Monday before scattering out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  63  86 /  80  20  20  30
GCK  60  83  63  86 /  80  10  20  30
EHA  60  85  63  86 /  60  10  40  20
LBL  62  85  64  87 /  70  10  40  30
HYS  60  83  63  85 /  80  10  10  20
P28  65  86  67  87 /  80  30  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 /229 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND
WIND OVER 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MONTEZUMA           37.60N 100.52W
06/22/2014  E60 MPH          GRAY               KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
926 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND GST     KISMET                  37.21N 100.70W
06/22/2014  E60 MPH          SEWARD             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
937 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLAINS CITY             37.26N 100.59W
06/22/2014  E60 MPH          MEADE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
956 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W MEADE               37.28N 100.36W
06/22/2014  M64.00 MPH       MEADE              KS   AWOS

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 ESE MEADE            37.20N 100.07W
06/22/2014  E65 MPH          CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1016 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 ESE MEADE            37.20N 100.07W
06/22/2014  E70 MPH          CLARK              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MRUSSELL