Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Dodge City, KS

060 
WWUS53 KDDC 190012
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
712 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

KSC057-119-190022-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-140619T0045Z/
MEADE KS-FORD KS-
712 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FORD AND NORTHEASTERN MEADE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3738 10029 3748 10021 3763 10021 3791 10002
      3777 9969 3748 10010 3738 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 217DEG 23KT 3763 10003

$$

RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

A minor upper level trough is currently moving through western
Kansas, with the stronger dynamics centered off to the north of our
CWA.  There is a cold front in the vicinity from Hays to north of
Syracuse in Hamilton County as of 20z.  A dry-line has formed and
was from approximately Liberal to Garden City to Hill City at 20z.
There was a lower level wave which moved up from the Texas Panhandle
earlier this afternoon, which shoved the dry-line northeastward into
the cold front, causing the cold front to bow northward in the Ness
City/Hays area.  This dry-line intrusion into the cold front also
slowed the progress of the front to the southeast.  A fairly good
amount of mid to high level clouds covered most of the CWA at 20z,
and a single storm formed near Scott City between 19Z and 20Z.  The
short term models of the RUC, HRRR and ARW all backed off on a solid
line of storms forming along the dry-line this afternoon, but rather
a patchy line of storms.  There will still probably be a few
isolated severe storms with quarter size hail, but do not think the
severe storms will be widespread or very big hail (quarters).  Will
monitor SPC for a Watch.

Overnight, the precipitation band from this afternoon should move
east, with another surface low moving up from Oklahoma into the P28
area.  The aforementioned front will progress southeast through our
CWA and be near a Pratt to Coldwater line by 12Z in the morning.
Therefore, with greater moisture available in the southeast zones,
will increase Pops there toward 12Z, and then spread the Pops back
to the northwest during the day Thursday.  SPC's Day2 outlook has
about our southeast 1/3rd of the CWA in a slight risk.  We will be
cooler in the afternoon, with the cold front south of us.  Have to
agree with SPC's assessment though, with the NAM model showing 3700
J/Kg of MuCape in our eastern zones, and 24 to 27Kts of bulk shear
in that same zone Tuesday at 21Z.  There will likely be some more
severe storms, again with Quarters to a little larger hail.  The TOR
threat looks minimal, but some 60kt winds could easily mix down.

As for Max/Min temperatures, I did not change anything.  Lows
tonight will be elevated in the 60F (NW) to 72F (SE) range.  On
Thursday, it will be cooler with maximum temperatures ranging from
the mid 80s north of I-70 and upper 80s down south along the
Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

The mid to upper level flow will become zonal by later this week and
into the weekend. This will allow for lee troughing and a dryline situated
across far western Kansas. Afternoon and early nighttime
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. But in the absence of upslope
flow this far south, and with the lack of low level baroclinicity
and a well defined upper level jet, organized thunderstorm
activity will probably stay farther north through Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the lower 90s through Saturday with lows
mainly in the 60s. Thunderstorm chances are higher by late Sunday
as a weak shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow traverses
western Kansas. Organized thunderstorm activity is possible into
Monday with this feature, along with cooler temperatures by
Monday. Thunderstorm chances may diminish by late Monday and
Tuesday as weak surface high pressure builds into western Kansas.
However, by late Tuesday and into mid to late next week, there
will be more opportunities for thunderstorms as westerly to
northwesterly mid to high level flow persists, along with weak
capping and plentiful low level moisture. High temperatures will
be held down by cloud cover and convective debris.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

Will carry VCTS at the Garden City, Dodge City and Hays TAF sites
for a few hours this evening as widely scattered thunderstorms
move through central and parts of southwest Kansas. The
thunderstorm activity should be ending after 03-04z. Winds should
remain gusty to around 25 knots from the south until late tonight.
A cold front will drop south across the area Thursday morning.
Winds could become gusty to 10 to 20 knots for a short time behind
the front but should diminish and become easterly during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  87  63  91 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  65  86  62  92 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  63  87  63  91 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  67  89  64  92 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  68  86  62  91 /  20  20  10  20
P28  72  89  67  91 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
415 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
415 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /315 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A SCOTT CITY TO ULYSSES TO HUGOTON LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT EAST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR WAKEENEY LINE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A SCOTT CITY TO ULYSSES TO HUGOTON LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

BURGERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

KSZ076-077-086-087-182300-
GRAY-HASKELL-MEADE-SEWARD-
458 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SEWARD...NORTHWESTERN
MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 11 MILES SOUTH OF SUBLETTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3767 10073 3754 10049 3722 10079 3732 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 213DEG 24KT 3735 10082

KRUSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

KSZ076-085>087-182345-
HASKELL-MEADE-SEWARD-STEVENS-
516 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...
SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS AND WESTERN MEADE COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR TYRONE...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIBERAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3751 10085 3725 10040 3699 10080 3699 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 214DEG 25KT 3701 10100

KRUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
524 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             4 SW LIBERAL            37.00N 100.99W
06/18/2014  E0.75 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             SUBLETTE                37.48N 100.85W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JFINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

KSZ077-182345-
GRAY-
602 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAY COUNTY...

AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONTEZUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3800 10046 3799 10024 3784 10023 3755 10046
      3762 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 211DEG 25KT 3765 10050

KRUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             WNW BUCKLIN             37.55N 99.64W
06/18/2014  E1.75 INCH       FORD               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JFINCH