Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Dodge City, KS

795 
WWUS53 KDDC 150557
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

KSC007-033-047-097-151-185-150615-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-140615T0615Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-KIOWA KS-BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-EDWARDS KS-
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
EDWARDS...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN BARBER...SOUTHEASTERN
KIOWA...PRATT AND SOUTHERN STAFFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1254 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM STAFFORD TO COLDWATER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CULLISON...WILMORE...BELVIDERE...CROFT...IUKA...ZENITH...NEOLA...
PRATT...COATS...PRESTON...SUN CITY...CAIRO...SAWYER...LAKE CITY AND
ISABEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9943 3800 9895 3800 9892 3803 9891
      3799 9846 3783 9847 3782 9846 3752 9846
      3708 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 299DEG 34KT 3798 9858 3731 9929

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Overall, not that overly impressed with severe potential versus looking
at data yesterday. A few things to note. 1) the wave driving all this
is still located across southern Utah and won't eject out across the
Central Plains until late tonight. 2) surface winds continue to veer
this afternoon, which will limit discrete storm potential as mean cloud
layer wind is basically parallel to the sfc boundary/dryline/eventual
front. 3) the overall trend in convective allowing models is to slow
initiation down until later tonight.

In looking at various convective allowing models (both cores of the
WRF, HRRR, 4 km NAM), I have slowed down pops and resultant weather
impacts. Think two areas will see storms first... 1) in the upslope
/post-frontal area across NE Colorado into NW Kansas. 2) and along the
frontal boundary across south-central Nebraska. The first area to impact
my forecast area will be along the I-70 corridor late this evening.
Here, the potential is for the largest hail size. The front will eventually
begin to undercut any surface based instability with elevated CAPE left
over. As mentioned, mean flow and frontal boundaries are basically parallel,
and this favors storms to line out. Seeder/feeder mechanisms and increased
beneficial competition along with marginal anvil SR flow should limit
hail potential. I do think that storms will develop fairly strong cold
pools and microbursts will remain a more significant threat through
the overnight period. Given the southwesterly momentum already in place,
think that areas along and east of Highway 283 stand the chance to see
the most significant severe weather impacts. Anticipate that the most
interesting/discrete behaving storms will remain north of the forecast
area. Convection should be out of the region by early tomorrow morning
as MCS cold pools and forward propagating accelerations are increased
and strengthened.

For tomorrow, will see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the fropa
with highs in the 80s. There will be another chance for thunderstorms
across south-central Kansas along the front. Drier/more stable will
advect in, so will keep low chance pops in for now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

From Monday into Wednesday, southwesterly upper level flow prevails,
bringing warmer temps, and little to no chances of significant
rainfall. A dryline may set up each day across southwest Kansas with
only a slight chance for a thunderstorm east of the dryline across
parts of south central Kansas. With 850 mb temps in the mid to upper
20s to near 30 Celsius far west, highs will be in the 90s each day.
Currently Monday looks the warmest with highs near 100. South winds
will also pick up by each morning into the afternoon at 20 to 30 mph
with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 60s on Monday morning, then around 70 into Wednesday morning.

For Thursday into Friday, an upper low and trough moves across the
Plains with a slightly better chance for rainfall and cooler temps
with a cold front. Highs cool into the 80s with lows in the 60s.

For Saturday, the upper low is forecast to be east of the Plains
with temps warming back to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Ongoing thunderstorms will move across the remainder of western
Kansas through 12z as a cold front surges south into Oklahoma.
Gust northwest winds 20 to 25 knots are expected to continue
overnight but will fall back to around 10knots between 12z Sunday
and 15z Sunday as a ridge of high pressure a the surface builds
quickly builds across western Kansas. These northwest winds will
shift to the southeast by late day and increase to around 15 knots
as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies and the
surface ridge axis moves southeast into eastern Kansas and
Oklahoma. IFR and MVFR ceilings with these thunderstorms at 06z
Sunday at Dodge City will give way to VFR conditions
between 07z and 08z. Ceiling will then continue to improve through 12z
Sunday as drier air and large scale subsidence builds into western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  98  70  96 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  64  98  68  97 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  63  98  67  96 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  64  98  69  98 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  64  97  70  96 /  10  10  10   0
P28  69  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-151930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 /122 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL
10 PM CDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS...OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
...AND LIGHTNING. THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR STANDS TO SEE THE LARGEST
HAIL WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEPART THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...AS WELL AS LIGHTNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1058 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             2 WNW HOWELL            37.79N 100.22W
06/14/2014  E1.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTEZUMA               37.60N 100.44W
06/14/2014  E65 MPH          GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 N DODGE CITY         37.93N 100.01W
06/14/2014  E80 MPH          HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

1103 PM     HAIL             12 N DODGE CITY         37.93N 100.01W
06/14/2014  E2.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

1103 PM     HAIL             COPELAND                37.54N 100.63W
06/14/2014  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1114 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.88W
06/14/2014  M80.00 MPH       TREGO              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 PM     HAIL             WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.88W
06/14/2014  M1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAYS                    38.88N 99.32W
06/14/2014  E58 MPH          ELLIS              KS   ASOS

            50 KNOTS OR 58 MPH GUST WAS REPORTED BY THE HAYS ASOS

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1124 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CIMARRON                37.81N 100.35W
06/14/2014                   GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT HAS BEEN BLOWN OVER INSIDE THE TOWN.

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     HAIL             MONTEZUMA               38.48N 101.07W
06/14/2014  E0.88 INCH       SCOTT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WHOVORKA