High Wind Watch 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

265 
WWUS73 KDDC 131936
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS GRADIENT IN
COMBINATION WITH MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL LEAD TO VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 

KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-077>081-088>090-140345-
/O.UPG.KDDC.HW.A.0001.140114T1500Z-140115T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.WI.Y.0001.140114T1500Z-140115T0000Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-
STAFFORD-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER...LAKIN...DEERFIELD...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...
JETMORE...HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...
HUDSON...CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...
LEWIS...GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...PRATT...ASHLAND...MINNEOLA...
COLDWATER...PROTECTION...MEDICINE LODGE...KIOWA...SUN CITY
136 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE
  TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  WITH WINDS THIS STRONG. LIGHT WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS 
  PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS CAN BE EASILY RELOCATED TO AN 
  UNDESIRABLE LOCATION. STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG 
  EAST TO WEST HIGHWAYS AND NEAR GRAIN ELEVATORS. BLOWING DUST 
  WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014

Weak surface high pressure moving in from the west, behind an
exiting cold front to the southeast, has been causing some
non-typical breezy northwest winds early this morning.  The front
will continue to move farther southeast and weak high pressure will
build in from the west this morning.  Winds should settle down to
around 10 to 12 mph after 11z or 12z.  I expect clear skies early.
Then this afternoon, as the surface heats up, a temperature gradient
will form to combine with the pressure gradient. West winds will
increase into the 15 mph gusting to 30 mph range this afternoon.
Still, western Kansas is behind a cold front in a cooler airmass,
and thus maximum temperatures will be down from yesterday. Temps
will be down that is, for all but our north, where maxT's will be
about the same as yesterday. Mid 50s will occur in most locations,
which is still 10F to 15F degrees above what is normal for Jan
13th. There will be a northwest flow aloft, and some mid to high
clouds will pass through, but I only expect few to sct clouds,
which should not constitute a ceiling.

A few clouds will be around tonight, but still result in mostly
clear to partly cloudy conditions.  West winds at 10 to 15 mph
gusting to 25 mph will slow down the temperature fall somewhat.
Still, minimums should bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.  A
cold front will approach from the northeast late Monday night, but
should not enter our forecast area prior to 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

As a result of the amplified wave moving through the plains, the
models and especially the various MOS products are appearing more
windy for Tuesday. As normal lows are only in the 20 for this time
of year, the lows on Monday morning should start out around 10
degrees above normal on average due to some boundary layer mixing
through the overnight. A 35 knot northerly jet at 850 mb should be
positioned across western and central Kansas based on the GFS, which
is less pronounced in the ECMWF solution. Still, low level lapse
rates between 7.5 and 8.5 C/km are modeled so windy conditions are
expected with strongest wind speeds just after noon. The wind should
weaken rapidly in the late afternoon as temperatures fall from
afternoon highs in the 40s back closer to normal by Wednesday
morning due to drier air, clear sky and slackening wind for better
radiational cooling.

Warmer temperatures return Wednesday as weak westerly downslope and
full insolation are forecast. Another cold front should traverse
western Kansas by Thursday morning, as a storm system developing
across the Northern Plains reinforces the eastern U.S. trough. The
upper cold pool will shift into the Great Lakes region through the
weekend, and upper ridging will dominate the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

A fairly good surface gradient will persist over the 3 TAF sites
for this time of the morning, giving northwest winds in the
15g23kt range through about 11z.  High pressure will ease in from
the west, allowing nearly cloud-free skies and winds to subside
from the northwest to west at 10 to 11 knots after 11z.  The
surface will heat up towards 17-18z, and then a temperature
gradient will help produce west winds in the 15g25kt range. A few high
clouds will drift in this afternoon as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  33  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  56  31  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  31  45  25 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  56  35  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
P28  58  35  49  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell_33
AVIATION...Burke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
135 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014 /1235 PM MST SUN JAN 12 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12