Frost Advisory 4, NWS Dodge City, KS

310 
WWUS73 KDDC 111351
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
851 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

...THREAT OF FROST HAS PASSED AS TEMPERATURES WARM...

KSZ030-031-111500-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141011T1400Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS
851 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

NOW THAT THE SUN HAS COME UP, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE 40S THIS MORNING, THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM WESTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND DEFORMATION
ZONE MOVES EAST THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MOSTLY BY THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
BEFORE ENDING. AS A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH. SKIES
WILL ALSO CLEAR IN THE FAR NORTH ALONG I-70 AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST FORMING INTO EARLY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN AROUND 60 TO 62 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER COLORADO/WYOMING BY
SUNDAY. HAVING ONLY BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO TEXAS BY THE PREVIOUS
COLD FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
AS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWODDC), WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS
1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE; BUT EVEN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY COULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS.
FARTHER WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SURFACE WINDS OUGHT TO BE
STRONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS
HIGH AS 25-30 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE
WEST COAST, WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WHICH
INDICATES LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS OUGHT TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK AND KDDC THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK SLOWLY LIFTS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STRATUS DECK SCATTERS OUT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGCK.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15KT LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  62  44  72 /  30   0   0  50
GCK  39  62  42  70 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  40  62  44  75 /  20   0   0  30
LBL  40  62  44  77 /  20   0   0  40
HYS  37  60  44  66 /  30   0   0  30
P28  43  62  46  73 /  30   0   0  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1024 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111530-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1024 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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