Frost Advisory 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

303 
WWUS73 KDDC 041354
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
854 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014


KSZ030-031-045-046-065-041500-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1400Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-PAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...RUSH CENTER...LARNED...
BURDETT
854 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHILE
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO SATURDAY,
PRECIP WILL BE ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IN TURN
WILL SET UP A LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE 5C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEAR 10C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 20S(F) TO
LOWER 30S(F), ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOWER 40S(F)
LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW LOW LYING
AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF PATCHY FROST, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

ON SUNDAY, WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AS A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LARGE SCALE H5
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY,
RETROGRADES TO THE NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID 70S NORTH OF I-70 AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 80F DEGREES IN THE
AREAS NEAR ASHLAND. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HINT OF A
SMALL BUT AMPLIFIED WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EC MODEL EVEN GENERATES
A LITTLE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH, SO I HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY, AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THROW IN SOME 10-12 PERCENT SILENT POPS.

THIS WAVE PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN, AS WELL
AS DRAG SOME COLDER AIR SOUTHEASTWARD AT THE MID AND HIGHER
LAYERS. THUS, MONDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND MONDAY, THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE COMES IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME PERIODS. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN NORTHWEST INTO KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE GFS IS BRINGING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER TROPICAL SIMON INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A BULLSEYE UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN MY WESTERN ZONES.
FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOW THE CONSALL SOLUTION AND STAY WITH LOWER-END
POPS. THE CONSALL'S SOLUTION FAVORS THE SLOWER AND LESS MOIST
ECMWF AND GEM MODELS, PLACING VERY SMALL 15 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN BUMPING UP TO 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES CWA-
WIDE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FRIDAY IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES. IF LATER MODEL RUNS COME TOGETHER ON THE TIMING
AND SIGNIFICANCE AFFECT OF THIS WAVE, WE CAN UPDATE THE GRIDS
THEN.

HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
OF I-70 TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR
NOW, WITH THE EXPECTED BROKEN CEILINGS THURSDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL DIP
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH NEAR HAYS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR COLDWATER.  FRIDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HAYS, SCOTT CITY AND
ELKHART AREAS, AND RANGE UP TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE MEDICINE LODGE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  40  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  38  72  49  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
514 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 96
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

33