Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
PRECIP TIMING AND LOCATION.

CURRENTLY...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO RAPID CITY AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA STREAMING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST INTO UTAH. SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE BACK SIDE OF A
DRY SLOT...WHICH HAS KEPT US DRY SO FAR TODAY. WE ARE BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME CELLS DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE
AND SOUTHERN NIOBRARA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
OBSERVED. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THIS THUNDERSTORM DOES AS IT COMES
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEFORE ADJUSTING POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF COMPLETELY WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING. FOR SUNDAY...A PRETTY DRY DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE CWFA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WYOMING. MODELS SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ARE UNDER THE
MONSOONAL SURGE. MONSOONAL SURGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST TO COVER
MOST AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MONDAY...PARENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS NEVADA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM PROGGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...NAM PROGGING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PAINTED WELL IN THE NAM POPS...THUS HAVE
PAINTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF A LUSK TO PINE BLUFFS LINE...LOCALLY HIGHER
IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCALES FROM SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY EASTWARD TO
WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY.

MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTED NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO ALLIANCE LINE WITH
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOTED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...THANK YOU TO OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN BOULDER AND NORTH
PLATTE FOR COORDINATION.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO
RESIDE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH COOL...MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE FORECAST 70 TO 100 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE BOUNDARY THROUGH 500 MB LAYERS...WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF INTERSTATE
25...AND PAINTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE FROM
WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...WITH LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WE ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE WELL
PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT.

THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING...WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

SATURDAY...MORE RIDGING ALOFT PROGGED...SUGGESTS THAT A DRYING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...AT BEST...
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. DO NOT SEE A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL MAYBE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION COULD FIRE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. UNTIL
THEN...EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER FOR AVIATORS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SETTLES ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING. WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAINS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WE BEGIN TO SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
EVERYONE SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119-
031100-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
400 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ103-112-114-031100-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-SNOWY RANGE-
400 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
355 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NEZ002-095-022245-
DAWES NE-NORTH SIOUX NE-
355 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SIOUX AND SOUTHWESTERN
DAWES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 348 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF FORT ROBINSON CAMPGROUND...OR 32
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHADRON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FORT ROBINSON AND FORT ROBINSON CAMPGROUND AROUND 405 PM MDT.
CRAWFORD AROUND 425 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

WHEN THUNDER ROARS...MOVE INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 10331 4244 10326 4253 10366 4269 10365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 265DEG 9KT 4260 10351

RUBIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
410 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NEZ002-003-022300-
BOX BUTTE NE-DAWES NE-
410 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWES AND
NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 409 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HEMINGFORD...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF ALLIANCE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM MDT
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DAWES COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM MDT

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

WHEN THUNDER ROARS...MOVE INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 10274 4229 10303 4245 10303 4249 10276
      4244 10274 4235 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 266DEG 10KT 4237 10293

RUBIN