Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
456 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.

STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET.  SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

WYZ101>119-161115-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY THIS EVENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY  BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-161115-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS
EVENING...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
544 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

WYZ105-106-110-115-116-160030-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-LARAMIE VALLEY
WY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-SHIRLEY BASIN WY-SOUTH LARAMIE
RANGE WY-
544 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALBANY AND EASTERN CARBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 539 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE BOW...OR 44 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LARAMIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROCK RIVER...
  BOSLER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 10542 4141 10569 4175 10625 4190 10612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 303DEG 36KT 4178 10608

HAMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
549 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

WYZ112>114-160030-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE WY-SNOWY RANGE WY-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
WY-
549 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALBANY AND
SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 544 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BATTLE LAKE...OR 43 MILES SOUTH OF
RAWLINS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOTTLE CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  ENCAMPMENT...
  SKYLINE...
  FRENCH CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  SIX MILE CAMPGROUND...
  ILLINOIS CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  RIVERSIDE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 10665 4109 10706 4131 10702 4128 10626
      4099 10628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 289DEG 34KT 4118 10693

HAMMER