Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STRONGER
STORMS WITH MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS BEING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO
THIS EVENING. ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LOCALIZED. SOME HAIL THREAT STILL THERE AS WELL THOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT GREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
THOUGH SOME MAY HANG ON OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS SFC UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING THE DAY ALLOWS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY NOT PROGGED TO BE AS
GREAT THOUGH SO ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
TEMPS JUST A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT
SAT EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER
THE WEST. THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S BELOW 7500 FEET...WITH
60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT VEERING TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...WITH MINIMAL CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST IN THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL CARRY ALONG PLENTIFUL PACIFIC
MOISTURE...THUS WILL SEE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND UPSLOPE FORCING. GFS IS PRODUCING
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS OVER THE CWA WITH THE JET
OVERHEAD SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS ORGANIZE TO
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
BACK OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING FOR THE CWA
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE EASTERN SITES
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOST
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
NEXT WEEK. DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

WYZ104-105-109>116-121100-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-117>119-
121100-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
509 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

NEZ021-120000-
MORRILL NE-
509 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRILL COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

AT 505 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANGORA...OR 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ANGORA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 10290 4189 10335 4200 10330 4201 10324
      4200 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 285DEG 11KT 4195 10320

HAMMER

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