Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I25. ALL MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER SHEAR 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
OVER 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR PROGGED FROM EASTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH GOOD INSULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD TODAY WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION. CONCERNED ABOUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING JUST EAST OF
I25 WITH 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

CURRENTLY...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL THE MAIN PLAYER OVER
THE CWFA THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH GILLETTE AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW AND
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS SWEET WATER AND CARBON COUNTIES. EVEN GETTING
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OUT NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THIS HAPPENS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
BEGIN PUSHING THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA EAST. LATEST
SOUNDING NOT SHOWING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR HERE IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...BUT SOUNDINGS FOR SIDNEY AND CHADRON DO STILL CAPE
FORECASTS OF 2000-2500 J/KG AFTER 18Z...SO DO THINK THERE COULD BE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDING TAKE ON
LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS DROP UNDER
10KT. FORECAST PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OUT IN THE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING FOR OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES AS
SEVERAL OF THESE COUNTIES RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS LAST NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE PANHANDLE MID EVENING TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS COMING QUICKLY TO AN END IN ITS WAKE. THINK FOR THE
MOST PART...SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ECMWF DOES
SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

700MB WINDS REALLY BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST
WITH THE GFS SHOWING 40KT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD REALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FOR SUNDAY,

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME
NWLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA INTO THE PLAINS WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL ABOUT WEDS WHEN SOME LOOKS TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MTN CHAIN. WEDS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION THOUGH WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CAP IT SOME. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DRAG A COOL FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTORMS
DEVELOPING WEST OF I-25 WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
INVOF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF
RECEIVING WETTING RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRIER/MORE
WINDY PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO LOWER
TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND EVEN SUGGESTING THE FIRST MONSOON PUSH OF THE SUMMER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
416 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WYZ101>119-281030-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
416 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SOME
COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-281030-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
416 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS WILL
MOVE RATHER SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
846 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             8 SW WHEATLAND          41.97N 105.07W
06/26/2014  M0.25 INCH       PLATTE             WY   PUBLIC

0350 PM     HAIL             6 S WHEATLAND           41.96N 104.96W
06/26/2014  M0.50 INCH       PLATTE             WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0447 PM     HAIL             9 SSW CHEYENNE          41.03N 104.86W
06/26/2014  M0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   PUBLIC

            OBSERVED AT TERRY BISON RANCH ROAD.

0541 PM     HAIL             3 SW YODER              41.89N 104.34W
06/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM     HAIL             CARPENTER               41.03N 104.34W
06/26/2014  M1.00 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0547 PM     HAIL             HILLSDALE               41.21N 104.48W
06/26/2014  M0.88 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0651 PM     HAIL             1 NW CARPENTER          41.04N 104.35W
06/26/2014  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     HAIL             13 W CHEYENNE           41.15N 105.04W
06/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0733 PM     HAIL             PINE BLUFFS             41.18N 104.07W
06/26/2014  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED...BUT A FEW WERE ONE HALF INCH.

0900 PM     HAIL             BRIDGEPORT              41.67N 103.10W
06/26/2014  M1.00 INCH       MORRILL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER RUNNING CURB TO CURB IN BRIDGEPORT.

&&

MJAMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1215 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WYZ106-116>118-271900-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE
COUNTY WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-
1215 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LARAMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALBANY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1212 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRYSTAL LAKE CAMPGROUND...
OR 19 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NORTH CROW CAMPGROUND...
  FEDERAL...
  HORSE CREEK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 324 AND
355.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND
19.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4118 10548 4164 10511 4121 10480 4099 10509
      4099 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 223DEG 32KT 4109 10511

TJT