Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.

UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
LUSK WYOMING TO NEAR KIBM NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM KSNY NORTHWARD TO KAIA. ANY
LOW CIGS OR FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
215 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-105>108-115>119-
262015-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
215 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BETWEEN 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM 2 PM THROUGH 9 PM FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-109>114-262015-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
215 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

JAMSKI

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