Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
557 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ONCE AGAIN DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CURRENTLY...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
HAVE PUSHED WELL INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING. OVER
HERE BY CHEYENNE AND ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...WE ARE EXPERIENCING
A SOUTHWEST WIND...INDICATING A SECONDARY BOUNDARY LAYING UP
AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES AT 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK IS JUST ABOUT TO COME ONSHORE OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LINE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL CAPPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 1930Z WITH 75 TO 100 J/KG
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ANALYZED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A
NORTHEAST WIND OUT IN THE PANHANDLE TO GET SOME UPSLOPING MOISTURE
HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST CAPES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER NOW WITH SBCAPES OF 600-800 J/KG
HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 400 TO 500 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. LATEST CIRA SATELLITE PRODUCT STILL SHOWS SOME PRETTY
GOOD CELL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

BY TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST ON THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE GETS MORE ENHANCED AS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS GET BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOKING AT A FAIRLY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET OF 65KTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO. ECMWF DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUT CWFA. PROBABLY ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
TO LOW END LIKELY SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWFA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. WENT AHEAD WITH THE
ECMWFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST FOR POPS.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH BISECTING THE
CHEYENNE CWFA WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE UP TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

QUITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURS AND FRI.
WITH MOIST E TO SE UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
45-55F RANGE)...THE GFS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE ON THURS AND
FRI AFTNS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AND PW VALUES IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH
RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT QUITE HIGH FOR LATE MAY AND COMBINED WITH
THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. LARGER
MODEL DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO SHOW UP BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH AS IT MOVES THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS ACROSS COLORADO. THE COOLER ECMWF
SOLN WOULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT AND
SPREAD GOOD PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAINFALL COULD
POSE SOME HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR RIVERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE HIGHER OVER SOUTHEAST WY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
AS FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH AND STALLS OVER THAT AREA.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OFF THIS LOW
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
818 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-106>108-117>119-201430-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
818 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WHEATLAND TO ALLIANCE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL AND DOWN BURST WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR MOST
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FROM 3 PM THROUGH
9 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WHEATLAND TO ALLIANCE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ101-103>105-109>116-201430-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
818 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR MOST
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
620 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             4 S BAYARD              41.70N 103.32W
05/19/2014  M1.00 INCH       MORRILL            NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             S ALBIN                 41.42N 104.10W
05/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
638 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             7 N BUSHNELL            41.33N 103.89W
05/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RANGED FROM NICKLE TO QUARTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
642 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             BRIDGEPORT              41.67N 103.10W
05/19/2014  M0.75 INCH       MORRILL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

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