Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
526 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE YESTERDAY LOOKS TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HERE AT CHEYENNE. PRETTY DRY HERE AT CHEYENNE
WITH 2 PM HUMIDITIES AT 30 PERCENT. OUT EAST IN THE
PANHANDLE...DEWPOINTS STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. SCOTTSBLUFF HAS
53F...TORRINGTON 55...ALLIANCE 50 AND CHADRON 54 AT 2 PM. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS THE PANHANDLE STILL CAPPED WITH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AROUND 100 J/KG. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF CHEYENNE NEAR CHUGWATER WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS LESS CAPPED. NEXT UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WE DO SEE A WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING LOSES THE LOW LEVEL
CAP. MAY NOT BE SO MUCH FOR ALLIANCE AND CHADRON...BUT SIOUX AND
POSSIBLY SCOTTSBLUFF COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GOSHEN/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING COULD BECOME UNCAPPED.

GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY...LOOKS TO LAY
ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE.
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH ASSOCIATED
95-100KT JET STREAK. MAY HAVE THE SAME ISSUE WITH LOW LEVEL CAP
TOMORROW AS WE ARE HAVING TODAY. WILL NEED TO STAY ON GUARD FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION DOWN THIS WAY...BASICALLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

BY WEDNESDAY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEVADA.  THIS
PATTERN PLACES EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDERNEATH A
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BOTH MODELS DONT REALLY MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST THAT MUCH
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING IT EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION BY SATURDAY...THEN THEY DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF
WANTING TO LIFT THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO WYOMING NEXT SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER DETACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES...HOLDING IT TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL...THE CONSENSUS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERSISTENT PATTERN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTERACTING
WITH THE MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW (ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS) TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY MORE BULLISH ON POPS AND THE
GFS SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH.  FOR NOW WE TRENDED
POPS CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO EJECT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME...WITH A OVERALL
PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WE WOULD NOT
BE SUPRISED TO SEE A FEW EPISODES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS SHORTWAVES WITH COOLER
POCKETS ALOFT EJECT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW...STEEPING THE MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES PERIODICALLY.  02/GARMON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL COUNTINUE NEAR AND AROUND KBFF AND KAIA THROUGH
MID EVENING BEFORE STORM DIMINISH. VFR AFTRWARDS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER. THIS SHOULD IMPACT
KLAR...KCYS...KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
AS FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TEENS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH AND
STALLS OVER THAT AREA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OFF THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

NEZ021-054-055-WYZ101-103>107-109>119-191815-
MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1202 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWN BURST WINDS TO 50 MPH
AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019-020-095-096-WYZ102-108-191815-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
1202 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE MID EVENING BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO BRIDGEPORT AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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