Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Cheyenne, WY

830 
WWUS85 KCYS 242207
RFWCYS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 301 BEGINNING UNTIL 6PM MDT TODAY...

.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END BY EARLY THIS 
EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER WHILE WINDS 
SUBSIDE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 301...304...AND 306 WHERE FUELS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. 


WYZ301-250000-
/O.CON.KCYS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140725T0000Z/
NIOBRARA/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE/THUNDER BASIN NATIONAL
GRASSLAND-
407 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 301.

* WINDS...WEST AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DECREASING
  THIS EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT AND IMPROVING THIS
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES... 
  AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS 
  FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

859 
WWUS85 KCYS 242359
RFWCYS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
559 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

WYZ301-250100-
/O.EXP.KCYS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140725T0000Z/
NIOBRARA/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE/THUNDER BASIN NATIONAL
GRASSLAND-
559 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
301...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

JAMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1047 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
STORMS MAKE IT. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CUT MUCH OF THE
HEATING...AND A STORM COMPLEX EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SET DOWN A
STABLE LAYER OF AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 75 TO 100 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO
SHOULD SEE STORM STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT NOT CERTAIN STORMS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PLAINS...THEN THEY COULD
EASILY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT IS INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ALREADY GETTING CONCERNED TOMORROW FORECAST IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS MONSOON MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO. SHOULD THAT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING IN A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR WILL
BE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD GENERALLY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS COOL
AIR AND A FAST REBOUND OF WARM AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD PUSH HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 90S. EITHER WAY THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THE NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SFC HIGH
TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
RECENT WARMTH WITH TEMPS BEING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT CDR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT CDR THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THURS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 301 IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
810 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-117>119-
241030-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
810 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-105-109>116-241030-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
810 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

JAMSKI