Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS OF 45-55F AND
SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  ADDED
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE JUST AS FAVORABLE UP THERE AS FURTHER
SOUTH.  STORM INITIATION HAS BEEN QUITE LIMITED SO FAR OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...PERHAPS BECAUSE SFC WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER LARAMIE COUNTY.  THINKING THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTN WITH CAPE DROPPING OFF TO
500-1000 OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO.  0-1KM
HELICITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 50 OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM.  THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS AT SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM CONVERGE TO THE
NORTH OF LARAMIE COUNTY...WHICH SEEMS ON TRACK SO FAR.  STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
WITH SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THURS
WILL BE THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY...THUS THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DECREASES.  0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE DOWN TO 15-25 KTS
OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN.  THERE IS STILL GOOD INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND OF 1500-1750...SO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
PROBABLY THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AS
OPPOSED TO LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI-SUN. LOOKING AT A GOOD COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A RETURN
OF SOME SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS...AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
AFTER 14Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EVERY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED WET PATTERN.
RISES ON TRIBUTARIES AND HEADWATERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LARAMIE
RIVER...UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LITTLE SNAKE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE RISES TO AND IN SOME CASES INTO FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE JUST ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF MODERATE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS IS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
10K FEET THROUGH THIS EVENT. SO RAPID SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING/RIVER RISES COULD TAKE PLACE IF IT MATERIALIZES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE ANY WATCHES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1251 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
221900-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1251 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. A FEW WEAK TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LARAMIE...PLATTE...AND GOSHEN COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-105-109>115-221900-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1251 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

FINCH

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