Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND TO
PRODUCE MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA..AND IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
 THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS A WEAK SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
LAURELS. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AS
CONVECTION FORM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. ALL OF CENTRAL PA IN SLGT RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ANOMALOUS PW OF
1.4 TO 1.6" LIFTING NWD IN RIBBON FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER PA WILL BE FOCUSED BY UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING ONTO THE
WESTERN COAST OF MICHIGAN. AS THE SFC HEATS UP AND THE BOUNDARY
MOVES IN...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET STARTED AFTER SUNSET...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
+1.5 PWATS AND STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY AND PERSIST THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY MORNING .IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SPOTS. TO THE NORTH...MINS WILL DROP
INTO THE MORE COMFORTABLE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING AS SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA. SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THROUGH SOUTHERN PA...SHOULD HAVE 0.75 TO
     1.5"+ PWATS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION. LLVL DRY AIR
WILL FILTER IN BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z WHICH WILL TAPER OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH...THOUGH WARM AIR AND AN ADVANCING
SFC LOW COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BATTLE BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND ATTEMPTS BY
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. TO REBUILD INTO THE EAST WILL
DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL WIN OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER RETROGRESSING SWWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER AND DRIER
ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE STATE BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE ONE SIGNIFICANT TROF SWINGS EAST OF THE COAST. THIS WILL
HELP THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL OTHER SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE QUEBEC LOW ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE A
SERIES OF SFC WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BRING BACK THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
GLOBAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA TEND TO FAVOR THIS IDEA...SUGGESTING
ANOTHER LATE DAY OR NOCTURNAL/OVERNIGHT TSTM EVENT. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z THROUGH 12Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSRA SHOULD ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST TO EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS BY MORNING. EXPECT SKIES TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z
IN THE NORTH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY.
FRI...NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SUN...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-191830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

PAZ004-182345-
WARREN PA-
649 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...

AT 645 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TITUSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND VALLEY...CHAPMAN STATE PARK AND TIDIOUTE.

BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL
CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4181 7961 4178 7913 4163 7917 4163 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 281DEG 25KT 4165 7974

RXR