Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...USHERING IN YET ANOTHER BLAST OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SNOW IS BREAKING OUT RAPIDLY NOW IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT IS TRACKING OUT OF THE GR LAKES. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SNOW IS SIMILARLY RACING EAST AND IS MOVING INTO
EASTERN OHIO AS OF MID DAY. NO REAL CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING
REGARDING AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE ARGUES FOR LITTLE
MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW LOCALLY. THE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
JET ENTRANCE REGION WILL CAUSE THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTH. JUST AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB...THE PRECIP
WITH CLIPPERS THAT TRACK TO OUR NORTH TYPICALLY ENDS UP BEING
LITTLE MORE THAN A NUISANCE IN MOST AREAS. NWRN PA STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING THAT MAY ACTUALLY GET A PLOW OUT.

TEMPS WILL RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND 20 TO 25F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. A
CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF
FASTEST 850 MB SWRLY WINDS SLIDES NE ACROSS THE STATE. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME CONFINED ACROSS PRIMARILY THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING CAN BE
EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW
ZONES AS YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE 20S A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

THE LATEST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A MONTH OF STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS WILL
BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH THE TEMP STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON A GUSTY WNW WIND. BY EVENING...TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW TO NEAR 20 IN
HARRISBURG. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE
LAURELS AND NRN MOUNTAINS...AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE QPF...USING A BLEND OF
SREF/ECMWF/GFS AND HPC NUMBERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE INCREDIBLY DRY
AND GETTING LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GR LAKES.

ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE
LAURELS UP THROUGH THE NW MOUNTAINS. CONCERN IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SQUALLS AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z
WRF. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE EARLY
JANUARY...RECORD COLD OUTBREAK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY
BRINGS LOW TEMPS BELOW ZERO TO ENTIRE CWA TUE AND WED MORNING...WITH
-10F OR COLDER IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY
WILL BRING THE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK...AS TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INCH ONLY INTO THE
MID TEENS IN THE SE.

THERE/S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA /OF -15F/ BEING MET LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY /WITH A SEEMINGLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA OF
-25F ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST MAINLY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WED WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE WC WARNINGS...BUT EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BACK BELOW -15 TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH COLDER TEMP READINGS
POSS AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES POTENTIALLY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMS /MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY/ SHOULD BE STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NW ZONES...AND
PERHAPS THE RIDGES OF WRN SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN THE BITTER COLD /TEMPS ABOUT 20F BELOW NORMAL/ THE
MID-LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN. FLOW TURNS MORE SW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD
ONLY 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VERY
AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE STRONG WEST
COAST RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM
THE BITTER COLD AS WE ENTER INTO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS RACING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. AS
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES ARE THE FIRST TO PLUNGE...DOWN TO AROUND A
MILE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST AREA.

STILL BELIEVE THE SERN TERMINALS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE BULK OF
THE WEATHER LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...REMAINING VFR INTO
MONDAY.

EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF SNOW
DEPARTS. BFD/JST MAY NOT SHARE IN THE IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE VIZ/CIGS IMPROVE WITH THE ENDING
OF THE SNOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IMPROVING TO VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRY ARCTIC AIR
BRINGS CLEARING SKIES EVEN THERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
935 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042-271445-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
935 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ027-028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-271445-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
935 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND WIND
CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-018-024-025-033-034-262000-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
MCKEAN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-SOMERSET PA-WARREN PA-
208 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL AFFECT
CAMBRIA...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN...SOMERSET...WARREN...WESTERN
BEDFORD...WESTERN BLAIR...WESTERN CAMERON AND WESTERN CENTRE
COUNTIES...

SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS OVER PORTIONS
OF BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON...
CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN...SOMERSET AND WARREN COUNTIES.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
EXPECT VERY ICY CONDITIONS IF YOU MUST TRAVEL OUT.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... FLIGHT 93 NATIONAL
MEMORIAL...ALLEGHENY PORTAGE RAILROAD NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE...
JOHNSTOWN FLOOD NATIONAL MEMORIAL HISTORIC SITE...BLUE KNOB SKI
RESORT...SAINT FRANCIS UNIVERSITY...MT. ALOYSIUS COLLEGE...UNIVERSITY
OF PITTSBURGH AT BRADFORD...UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT JOHNSTOWN...
PENN STATE ALTOONA AND PENN STATE DUBOIS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 136...I-80 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 97 AND 133.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 40...ROUTE 62...
ROUTE 119...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 422...STATE ROAD 46...STATE
ROAD 56...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD
153...STATE ROAD 255...STATE ROAD 350...STATE ROAD 446.

LAT...LON 3972 7939 3983 7938 4072 7881 4113 7881
      4122 7872 4137 7897 4134 7910 4145 7907
      4145 7897 4162 7897 4164 7957 4199 7961
      4199 7837 4117 7806 3972 7880

FORECASTER: LA CORTE