Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #403 ISSUED FOR ALL OF CWA
EXCEPT FAR 3 SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TIL 00Z.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD INTO CENTRAL
PA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW HELPING TO PUMP UP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...AND A FEW 70S...STATEWIDE. A SEASONABLY STRONG 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PIVOTS EWD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
WRN PA IN THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION OVER NWRN PA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
CONVECTION ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL STRONGER
FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT MCS NOW OVER OHIO TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
CENTRAL PA AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVE EAST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ADD TO THE WIND
POTENTIAL. FOR THIS REASON SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TO
A MODERATE RISK AND ISSUED A PUBLIC WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THERE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT...WHICH
MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE 0-3KM SRH AND RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE
SUPERCELL HODOGRAPH. KEPT POPS IN THE LKLY RANGE THRU 06Z AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE TSTM
INTENSITY/CVRG AND LCL SVR THREAT TRENDING LOWER AFTER DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH EARLY ON DAY 2 WILL
PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY/LOW CAPE...SCT SHWRS AND ISOLD
TSTMS /NON-SVR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN GIVEN
BROAD FORCING ALOFT AND LIFT ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PWS
QUICKLY DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY WED EVE SO QPF AMTS SHOULD
BE VERY LGT AND SPOTTY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WED NGT ON THE FRONT-SIDE OF GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRIMARY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM ERN
CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT WELL TO OUR NE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. 1020-1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY AS SFC DEWPOINTS SLIDE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT /EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WNW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN U.S./ WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS TSRA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE CWA SATURDAY /PER THE LATEST GEFS...EC BLEND.
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME STRETCHED OUT MORE EAST TO WEST AND STALL
INVOF PA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER PULSE OF ENERGY
ALOFT DIVE SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND HELP TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK.

EXPECT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MID CLOUDS...AND SOME LOW IN NW
PA...STREAMING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST AT KBFD WITH IFR EXPECTED WHEN LINE OF TSRA MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECT
UNTIL THAT SAME LINE OF TSRA REACHES OTHER TAF SITES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY JST AND BFD.

SOME HAZE OVER THE REGION GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6 MILES OR GREATER.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS. SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS SE.
THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>058-063-064-091715-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
115 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ059-065-066-091715-
LEBANON-YORK-LANCASTER-
115 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PAZ010-011-082000-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 325 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JOHNSONBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. MARYS AND EAST BRANCH DAM AROUND 330 PM EDT.
  ELK RIVER AND TRUMAN AROUND 340 PM EDT.
  SIZERVILLE AROUND 350 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE KERSEY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4160 7848 4160 7842 4162 7842 4162 7821
      4156 7814 4140 7841 4127 7875 4136 7896
      4163 7865 4163 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 233DEG 48KT 4145 7865

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PAZ006-012-018-019-041-045-082030-
NORTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-POTTER PA-
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMARACK TO NEAR KEATING TO NEAR BLACK
MOSHANNON STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOCK HAVEN...KEATING...LAMAR...MILL HALL...DUNNSTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
RENOVO...CASTANEA...SNOW SHOE...BLANCHARD...CLARENCE...MCELHATTAN...
SOUTH RENOVO...MOSHANNON...PINE GLEN...MONUMENT...BALD EAGLE STATE
PARK...CROSS FORK...SLATE RUN AND CEDAR RUN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 158...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 178.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4154 7760 4154 7724 4134 7725 4097 7748
      4093 7817 4096 7816 4095 7814 4096 7813
      4094 7813 4095 7808 4101 7806 4105 7806
      4108 7810 4119 7801 4148 7796 4156 7760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 251DEG 36KT 4138 7785 4120 7787 4096 7801

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
446 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSFIELD              41.84N  79.38W
07/08/2014                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400202

EVANEGO