Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND DESPITE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE POST- FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MIGHT AS WELL JUST BLOCK COPY PASTE FROM THE EARLIER DISC.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN COS ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN
EARLIER - DESPITE STILL BEING ELEVATED/DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE.
THESE ALSO SEEM TO HAVE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND SHOULD LAST
LONGER AND DROP MORE RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE FURTHER BUMPED POPS
UP AND EXTENDED THEM INTO THE SERN COS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST RUC
AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS MOVE. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S OVER
THE LAURELS AND FAR NERN COS WHERE NO RAIN HAS YET FALLEN.

PREV...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ON THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE-LINE NOW...MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR NW PA WITH STILL AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE STILL BEING DISPLAYED.

HOWEVER THE 23Z HRRR KEEPS THIS ZONE ACTIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST. I RAMPED UP THE POPS AND
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AS EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT REALLY DOWNPLAYED
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. NEW MESO MODELS SEEM TO BE
FINALLY CATCHING UP.

WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MILD NIGHT IN
STORE WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SE OVER THE WARM FRONT ON WED...BRINGING SOME
BETTER DYNAMICS TO CENTRAL PA. BEST INSTABILITY/LIFT REMAINS OFF
TO OUR WEST THOUGH...AND PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR WEATHER WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THOSE REGIONS...BUT SOME STRONGER TSTORMS MAY
SLIP EASTWARD TOWARD OUR WESTERN BORDER LATER WED AS WARM SECTOR
WORKS NE AND MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACH 50 KTS. OVERALL
THOUGH...EXPECTING A SHOWERY DAY WITH SCT TSTORMS.

COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THIS WHOLE CONVOLUTED SYSTEM WILL
THEN RESIDE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR A DAY OR SO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WX COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE-TOPPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/DIG SEWD FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES D3-4. THE UPPER LOW EXITING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL ANCHOR A MEAN TROUGH ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST SAT-
SUN BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY A GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE
D6-8.

THE 20/00Z AND 20/12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTEN ACROSS THE CONUS REASONABLY WELL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AFTER DAY 6 RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF NOAM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...SCT SHWRS W/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY SFC COLD FRONT THRU CNTRL/RN PA EARLY THURS. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN THE RECENT COOL/DRY CYC FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH DIURNAL/INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING NORTH/EAST FROM
THE LWR MS VLY WILL PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN WITH
STRONG SIGNALS FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY FROM
MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SW NY HAS WEAKEN...BUT MORE DROPPING
SE FROM LAKE ERIE. AREA OF COOLING TOPS...AND MODELS SHOW
THIS AREA DROPPING SE ACROSS S PA.

THUS ADDED THUNDER TO THE 06Z PACKAGE.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...THUS WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STILL STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WARM ADVECTION...THUS
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST THE TAFS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...LEFT THINGS VFR AFTER 00Z THU.

SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW.

BEST DAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...EARLY AM FOG/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS POSS MAINLY N AND W WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
108 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

PAZ004-005-010-210600-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-ELK PA-
108 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 106 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JAMESTOWN WEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUSSELL AROUND 120 AM EDT.
  SCANDIA AND KINZUA DAM AROUND 130 AM EDT.
  MARSHBURG AROUND 140 AM EDT.
  WESTLINE AROUND 150 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SUGAR GROVE...
CLARENDON...MOUNT JEWETT...UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH - BRADFORD...
LEWIS RUN...BRADFORD AIRPORT AND STARBRICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7882 4180 7826 4144 7868 4199 7941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 297DEG 42KT 4205 7928

MARTIN