Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. EARLIER CONVECTION
EAST HAS PRETTY WELL STABILIZED COASTAL BEND...FOR NOW. WEB AND
DUVAL COUNTIES LARGELY UNTAPPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST OF
THE WESTERN CONVECTION HAS STAYED NORTH OF THERE. CURRENT
CONVECTION ALIGNED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET...INCLUDING DEVELOPING
STORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. MOST ALL MESO MODELS...AND SOME
GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
INTO AN MCS AND PUSHING EAST INTO TEXAS THIS EVENING. TIMING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE 23-01Z
TIME FRAME. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE HAS
BEEN AROUND CLOETE AND SABINAS MEXICO...WITH AN EAST OR EAST
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. CONVECTION SOUTH OF THERE HAS STARTED TO SHOW
SIGNS ON SATELLITE OF STRENGTHENING. COULD SEE THIS ALL MERGE INTO
THE PREDICTED MCS THIS EVENING.

STARTING TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE COAST...BUT
NOT SURE THERES ENOUGH TIME TO REALLY DESTABILIZE THE REGION.
FOR THAT REASON...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MCS TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE CWA IS NOT HIGH. MOST MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER JET AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AT LEAST 06Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A RAPID WEAKENING IN THE SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS CUT
OFF.

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT. AND RIDGING BUILDS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES...HOWEVER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH...KEEPING HUMID CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM/HOT AND HUMID SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SLIGHT CHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD MAKE IT INTO
LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND GET OFF SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AGREE WITH WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...AND FOR NOW AM
SIDING TOWARDS SLOWER 12Z ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE HIGHER POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT A SLIGHTLY MORE PROLONGED AND DELAYED
EVENT WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WITH THAT SAID...MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EMERGING OUT OF MEXICO ON MONDAY BRINGING A MODEST UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIVERGENT FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

AGAIN FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...RELATIVELY STRONG LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CWA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH SOUTH TEXAS
REMAINING IN SPLIT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THE POLAR JET MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
RICH/DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
12Z ECMWF INDICATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WORKS INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODIFYING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  89  74  91  74  /  40  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          71  88  73  89  73  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            74  99  76 100  76  /  40  10  10  10  20
ALICE             72  93  73  94  74  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  84  75  86  74  /  40  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           72  95  73  95  75  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  74  92  74  /  40  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  74  86  74  /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-101545-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1033 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
447 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

TXZ230-240-092245-
DUVAL-MCMULLEN-
447 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING DUVAL AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEVEN SISTERS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF FREER...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN DUVAL AND SOUTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF SEVEN SISTERS...ROSITA AND SAN DIEGO...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

TXZ239-092245-
WEBB-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS APPROACHING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTH OF CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT...OR 42
MILES NORTHWEST OF LAREDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WEBB COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF COLUMBIA
BRIDGE AND RANCHOS PENITAS WEST...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HART

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