Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM AS DRY WEST TO
WNW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS. ANOTHER WARM DAY
CAN EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S IN THE
WEST WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE NORTHEAST. WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF AND SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FIRE WEATHER...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO NEAR 40
PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRYING FUELS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD BY THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS TROUGH PUSHES OVER
WESTERN US. BY MID WEEK H85 TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 20S
CREATING A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ALSO INCREASED WITH PWATS BACK AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERENCE ON DETAILS FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO
BACK OFF ON DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA...BUT STILL
DROPS SOME DISTURBANCES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROG QPF. GFS IS ALSO
THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH UPPER JET...BEING FARTHEST AWAY FROM
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF HAS A FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND MORE
CONSISTENT ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH...BUT ALSO KEEPS H85 TEMPS
HIGHER. WHILE GFS DECREASES TEMPS BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
TEENS...ECMWF STAYS AROUND 20. WITH DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE REAL HIGH ON TIMING OF PRECIP. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS TO 30...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE SEABREEZE. HOPE TO
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODELS IN FUTURE RUNS TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL
IN FORECAST.

MAX TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WARMEST TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. WINDS GENERALLY MODERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN WEAKENING FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT CLEAR YET WHETHER
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OR EASE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  64  88  67  90  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          89  61  88  65  87  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            95  66  97  68  98  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             92  61  92  65  91  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  67  83  69  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           94  60  95  65  95  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  62  90  66  90  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  68  83  70  84  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TB/78...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-051100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
552 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.