Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

572 
WGUS74 KCRP 202015
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TXC273-355-202045-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-141020T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KLEBERG-NUECES-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PORT ARANSAS
315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NUECES AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KLEBERG COUNTIES...

AT 308 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PADRE ISLAND AND 
MUSTANG ISLAND. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES 
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MUSTANG 
ISLAND STATE PARK...PADRE BALLI PARK AND PADRE ISLES COUNTRY CLUB. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CORPUS
CHRISTI.

&&

LAT...LON 2749 9733 2770 9721 2770 9720 2774 9717
      2775 9719 2778 9717 2779 9713 2781 9713
      2781 9716 2786 9713 2784 9704 2769 9715
      2748 9726

$$

CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA'S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO'S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
521 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-211030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
521 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING MAY
OCCUR UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TODAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND PERSISTENT MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE SURF
ZONE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RH/TMT