Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Cleveland, OH

713 
WWUS51 KCLE 010804
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

OHC063-095-173-010812-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-140701T0800Z/
HANCOCK OH-WOOD OH-LUCAS OH-
404 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LUCAS...WOOD AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING NO LONGER PRESENT A SEVERE 
WEATHER THREAT TO THE WARNING AREA. THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND 
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT 
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4172 8389 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342
      4169 8337 4172 8334 4163 8318 4175 8310
      4174 8309 4162 8316 4162 8341 4099 8342
      4099 8346 4091 8348 4090 8352 4082 8351
      4081 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 267DEG 40KT 4191 8388 4055 8410

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
207 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 FOR MUCH OF
NORTHWEST OHIO. MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD OCCUR BY 7 AM BUT THE
UPDATED FORECAST BLEEDS OVER INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AS THEY WILL HAVE RUN WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS WIND AS THE LINE SEGMENTS SURGE AND BOW. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ROTATION ON THE PARTICULAR SEGMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE WILL BE RATHER ELEVATED AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN PRODUCING ROTATING STORMS.

VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 18-20C WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 90 BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
PREVENT MAX HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

LINGERING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED BUT TIMING THE SMALL
SCALE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED.   MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE ENTIRE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON
MONDAY AS ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.   THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY.  FOR NOW WILL SPIT THE DIFFERENCE AND LEAN TOWARD
CONTINUITY AND GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF TSRA FROM SW MI INTO NRN INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST BUT A FEW LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AS TOL AND FDY SO WILL MENTION IN THOSE TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGHER DEBRIS BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY
FOG FROM GETTING BELOW THE MVFR LEVEL THRU THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS
WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.

COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CAUSE ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE AND THEN PROGRESS EAST.
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT INITIALLY AROUND CLE
BUT THE LINE SHOULD FILL IN MORE BY THE TIME IT REACHES CAK...YNG
AND ERI.

SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH INTO SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO WED
EVE THE SCT SHRA MAINLY SNOWBELT LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THEN TURN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ON THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THE SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED TURNING THE WINDS NW BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FRI TO
CALM THE WINDS FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-020615-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-020615-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.