Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Cleveland, OH

757 
WWUS51 KCLE 070941
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
541 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014

OHC005-075-169-071000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140507T1000Z/
ASHLAND OH-HOLMES OH-WAYNE OH-
541 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN HOLMES AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
ASHLAND COUNTIES...

AT 537 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF SHREVE...MOVING EAST 
AT 35 MPH.  QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN 
ORRVILLE. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WOOSTER...HOLMESVILLE...APPLE CREEK...FREDERICKSBURG AND MOUNT EATON

LAT...LON 4053 8169 4070 8217 4072 8218 4087 8200
      4078 8165 4060 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 291DEG 30KT 4075 8198

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS SE INTO NORTHEASTERN
KY.   MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE FRONT INTO NE
OHIO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOWER
AND TSRA IN NW OHIO WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR AND COMES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT A LULL BY
MID DAY AND THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA REDEVELOP IN THE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR
BUT ONLY INTO THE 60S NE OF THE WARM FRONT.  DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD SEE A DEFINITE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED.   TOMORROW WILL BE HOT BUT DRY AS
700 MB TEMPS RISE TO 8C PROVIDING GOOD CAP TO INHIBIT TSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.  BUT THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSRA TO REACH NW OH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.   FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH 00Z MODELS CLOSE SHOWING ZONAL
FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
NRN MN AND OK/KS AREA. DIVERGENCES INCREASE HOWEVER AS THE GFS
DEVELOPS AN UPPER AIR CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN OPEN
WAVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A
MUCH SHARPER UPPER TROF INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH CORRESPONDINGLY
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF WPS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR A MORE
AMPLIFIED...WARMER/SLOWER SOLUTION.  TO THAT END FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE OF A DRY DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY POST COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN LWR MI MOVING EAST
AND EXPANDING SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BROUGHT THUNDER INTO KTOL BUT OTHERWISE A MIX OF VCSH AND VCTS.
ALSO BROUGHT IN A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS EAST BASED ON HRRR
TIMING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT WITHIN ANY
SHOWER/TSTM CORES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST FRIDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK