Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Cleveland, OH

077 
WWUS51 KCLE 241420
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OHC123-143-241445-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-141124T1445Z/
OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-
920 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EST
FOR SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

AT 916 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK HARBOR...OR 7
MILES EAST OF ELMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN 
SANDUSKY COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODVILLE...PUT-IN-BAY...PORT CLINTON...OAK HARBOR...GREEN SPRINGS...
GIBSONBURG...FREMONT...ELMORE AND CLYDE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 8341 4149 8333 4163 8315 4152 8291
      4160 8282 4165 8287 4166 8284 4168 8286
      4167 8283 4173 8282 4170 8277 4158 8282
      4154 8273 4148 8283 4146 8297 4142 8294
      4145 8284 4125 8285 4125 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1418Z 227DEG 53KT 4150 8313

$$

891 
WWUS51 KCLE 241445
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OHC123-143-241455-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-141124T1445Z/
OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-
945 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNING
AREA.

LAT...LON 4150 8341 4149 8333 4163 8315 4152 8291
      4160 8282 4165 8287 4166 8284 4168 8286
      4167 8283 4173 8282 4170 8277 4158 8282
      4154 8273 4148 8283 4146 8297 4142 8294
      4145 8284 4125 8285 4125 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 227DEG 53KT 4152 8310

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN ACTIVITY IN INDIANA HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TOO. TEMPS
HAVE STALLED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS...AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB
TODAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL
BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDER. DON'T SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-250900-
LAKE-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038-PAZ003-250900-
CUYAHOGA-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-CRAWFORD PA-
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-250900-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-KNOX-
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>144-162>164-250900-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   LOW WATER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   LOW WATER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-250900-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
346 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.