Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Cleveland, OH

451 
WGUS61 KCLE 280838
FFACLE

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
438 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

OHZ011>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-281645-
/O.CON.KCLE.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140728T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
438 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST OHIO...ASHTABULA 
  INLAND...ASHTABULA LAKESHORE...CUYAHOGA...GEAUGA...LAKE AND 
  TRUMBULL. IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...CRAWFORD PA...NORTHERN 
  ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. 

* UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON

* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
  TODAY AS A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH IT. AS COOLER AIR
  ALOFT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE IT WILL
  HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPS. IF A BAND OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN SET UP OVER A REGION IT COULD LEAD TO
  FLOODING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
  HALF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN
  POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

$$

278 
WGUS61 KCLE 281545
FFACLE

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


OHZ011>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-281645-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140728T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
1145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.

PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W'S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT THE TAF
FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
502 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
281100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
502 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ012>014-089-PAZ001>003-281100-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
502 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDDLEFIELD             41.46N 81.08W
07/27/2014                   GEAUGA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NURSING HOME REPORTED TO HAVE MAJOR FLOODING. LOCAL FIRE
            DEPARTMENT HAS 9 INCHES OF STANDING WATER INSIDE.

&&

JMAYERS