Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
339 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SO FAR THE BULK OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS
UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN GIVEN THE LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SO POPS
HAVE BEEN FAVORED THERE. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LOW...BUT
THE CHANCE REMAINS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WHERE MORE
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TONIGHT...ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AND THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN AND CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS
FALLING TO AROUND 70 IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD WHILE
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...WILL PREVAIL
WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
A BIT GREATER GIVEN THE ADDED CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BIT GREATER MID-LEVEL CAPPING WHICH SHOULD TEMPER
COVERAGE A BIT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING THE RISK
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SHOWING A
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRYING
TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PUSHES
DRIER/SUBSIDING AIR SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME
SOUTH SUNDAY...THEN LESS THEN 15% FOR MONDAY ALL AREAS. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ...MODELS INDICATING SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THUS...HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK LOW
END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR
TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE TERMINALS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...THE BEST COVERAGE
IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SO A VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO KSAV
THROUGH 21Z. THE CHANCE EXISTS AT KCHS AS WELL...BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...NOTHING WILL BE
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE FRIDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 2-3 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH. BY FRIDAY THE TROUGH SHOULD SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS...LIKELY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
GEORGIA WATERS BY SUNDAY. AFTER THE FROPA...THE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE POSSIBLY LEADING TO MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
326 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-290730-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
326 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
600 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

SCZ042-043-048-282230-
BEAUFORT-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-
600 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...COLLETON
AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR SALKEHATCHIE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
SALKEHATCHIE...BLAKE...DAVIDSON...HENDERSONVILLE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8094 3292 8070 3269 8069 3267 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 162DEG 6KT 3271 8080

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
610 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN CITY             32.10N  81.17W
05/28/2014                   CHATHAM            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES ALONG SPIVEY AVENUE NEAR
            SHARON PARK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1400617

JHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             5 NNE YEMASSEE          32.75N  80.82W
05/28/2014  E0.50 INCH       COLLETON           SC   PUBLIC

            0.5 INCH HAIL AND WINDS NEAR 50 MPH BLOWING TREE LIMBS
            AROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1400618

FWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 NNE YEMASSEE          32.74N  80.82W
05/28/2014  M1.25 INCH       COLLETON           SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED NICKEL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
            HAIL AND ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1400619

JHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
640 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

SCZ042-047-048-282315-
BEAUFORT-HAMPTON-INLAND JASPER-
640 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...JASPER AND
BEAUFORT COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR MCPHERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
MCPHERSONVILLE...KRESS...BARKERVILLE...YEMASSEE...DAVIDSON...
BLOUNTVILLE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8105 3282 8091 3278 8087 3273 8085
      3270 8082 3269 8081 3267 8075 3264 8071
      3256 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 217DEG 6KT 3268 8091