Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND LINGER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...ARCTIC AIR PLOWING IN WITH A VENGEANCE AS THE BASE OF
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. ISALLOBARIC
PRES RISES EXCEEDED 2 MB PER HOUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS WITH THE WIND MOMENTUM HAS BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINTAINING WIND ADVISORIES AS QUITE A
FEW OBS WERE REPORTING 30-35 KT GUSTS AT 3-4 AM INCLUDING SAVANNAH...
BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON. FAVORED DOWN-RIVER OBSERVATION SITES ALONG
THE INTRA-COASTAL REPORTED GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AT TIMES.

1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE AT 09Z EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 40 KT BY DAWN. EXPECT WE WILL BE LOWERING THE WIND
ADVISORY AFTER THE MORNING RUSH. THE GUSTY NW WINDS AND PLUMMETING
TEMPS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15-20 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS
AROUND DAWN.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SETTLE OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT. SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY BUT THERE
WILL BE PERIODIC CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 40 AND WE HAVE 40-43 MAX TEMPS JUST ABOVE
EVERYWHERE TODAY.

WINDS WILL VEER N BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE BIG STORM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND PULLS AWAY. UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE FLAVOR AFTER THE
STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND DAYBREAK.

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS DENSE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE N OF I-16
IN GEORGIA. WE LOWERED SOME INLAND TEMPS FROM ALLENDALE TO SUMMERVILLE
BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS DECREASE. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND MODELS ROBUST ON STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE PUSHING ONSHORE LATE. WE DID NOT BUY INTO THAT
WITH THE DRY COOL SHELF WATERS MORE LIKELY TO ASSIST IN LOWER CLOUD
EROSION AND MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BEACHES AND BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING BUT LIKELY REACHES 33/34 DEGREES
RIGHT ON THE WATER.

LAKE WINDS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE PRE-DAWN. EXPECT LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
INTO A BROAD TROUGH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE WHILE ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE COAST...THEN INLAND. HAVE MAINTAINED 20
POPS OVER ALL ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG
THE COAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE AREA WHILE MID/UPPER LVL
FORCING INCREASE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ALOFT. THE PEAK OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS OVER
ALL ZONES DURING THE TIMING OF EXPECTED FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE. EXPECT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS TO OCCUR EARLY WITH THE ONSET OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
INTO THE LOW 50S INLAND AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE LONG TERM
WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOW/MID 20S ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY....RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION OF TEMPS OVER THE AREA AS SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COAST LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. A
WEAKER COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. NW TO N WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTING ONSHORE. MODERATE CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES SWEPT OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KT AT FORT PULASKI AND FORT JOHNSON AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY AT DOWN RIVER LOCATIONS WHERE JETTING FLOW
WAS MAXIMIZED. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING PRE-DAWN WITH
ROUGH WIND WAVES OUT THERE AND VERY STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW.

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS MORNING...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ROBUST COLD ADVECTION MAINTAINS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GRADUAL
PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A
STEADY WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT. STRONGER THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT
LINGER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH. THE GRADIENT COULD
BEGIN TO PINCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINTAINING CLOSER TO 20 KT OF NNE
FLOW. WE TRENDED BY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS A BIT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS LATE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALES FOR OUR WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. SEAS COULD ALSO BE AS HIGH AS 5-7 FT BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE
COAST WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STEADILY
IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH WINDS/SEAS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOW OUT TIDE CONDITIONS UNDERWAY. TIDE LEVELS -2.3 TO -3.3 FT
MLLW...WHICH COULD EASILY CAUSE SOME NAVIGATION PROBLEMS ON AREA
WATERWAYS NEAR THE COAST. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-041015-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
503 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ374-041015-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
503 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-041015-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
503 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
435 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     LOW ASTR TIDES   3 WNW FORT SCREVEN      32.03N  80.90W
01/03/2014                   CHATHAM            GA   TIDE GAGE

            BLOW-OUT TIDE LEVEL REACHED -3.25 FT MLLW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1400014

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     LOW ASTR TIDES   1 E CHARLESTON          32.78N  79.93W
01/03/2014                   CHARLESTON         SC   TIDE GAGE

            BLOW-OUT TIDE LEVEL REACHED -2.33 FT MLLW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1400015

24

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>