Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR
WILL MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM THE OPEN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE: FCST UPDATED AT THIS POINT ONLY TO INCLUDE THE NEW
SVR TSTM WATCH HDLN FOR OUR REGION AND MORE HIGHER ENHANCED
WORDING FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE WATCH.

ORGNL DISC: LATEST RADAR SHOWS INITIAL STRONG TSTMS MOVING INTO
THE W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA FROM WRN ME. LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/LAPS DATA SUGGESTS MIXED MODE CNVCTV CELL TYPES INTO THE
ERLY EVE...WITH HIGH WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT AND LARGE HAIL
SECONDARY (HIGH FZL WORKING AGAINST LARGE HAIL IN THE ABSENCE OF
MESO-CYCLONE ROTATION).

WILL KEEP ENHANCED TSTM WORDING THRU THE ENTIRE EVE. OTHERWISE...
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN LATE TNGT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CNVCTN FEATURING MORE IN THE WAY OF HVY RNFL CAN
BE XPCTD THU AFTN...WITH ISOLD SVR WIND AND HAIL STILL POSSIBLE.

OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE WARM AGAIN...BUT LIKELY NOT AS WARM AS LAST
NGT OVR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVELY
COOLED AIR. HI TEMPS THU SHOULD ALSO BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER ACROSS
THE FA THAN TDY DUE TO GREATER CLD CVR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 925-850MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
NORTHERN MAINE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PWATS
NEARING 2 INCHES...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CELLS TRAINING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...HEAVY SHOWERS COULD
RENEW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STAGNANT FRONT. THIS LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENED BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TOWNS SUCH AS VAN BUREN COULD BE
IMPACTED RATHER THAN MAIN STEM RIVERS. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WHETHER THERE CAN
BE ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS IN DOUBT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYS WEST AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT. THE
BIGGEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF HOULTON TO
INCLUDE BANGOR AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BURN OFF. ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND INTERIOR DOWN
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NOT ANY CLEAR INDICATIONS OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT A FEW 80F READINGS POSSIBLE FOR
INTERIOR DOWN EAST.

TS ARTHUR RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEEMS
POISED TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TO DOWN EAST...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE FRONT MOVES CLEANLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF TS ARTHUR. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE LIKELY EXCEPT PERHAPS WASHINGTON
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TS ARTHUR DEPARTS THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY DOWNEAST...ENDING QUICKLY AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEAK AND SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER STATE FOR A RETURN TO WARMER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...ALBEIT NOT TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE TS
IN THE AFTERNOONS. A REINFORCED FRONT BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THIS EVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...XCPT BRIEFLY
MVFR OR IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS. NRN TAF SITES SHOULD THEN
BECOME MVFR AND DOWNEAST SITES IFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY THU MORN
IN SC/ST AND PATCHY FOG. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME VFR THU MORN
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHWRS AND TSTMS THU AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TOPS TO FL350. IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM
BHB OVERNIGHT...COVERING ALL SITES BY LATE NIGHT. THIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
TO MVFR AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR RETURNS IN THE EVENING UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS IT OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
VFR OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS WASHINGTON COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL KEEP HAZ SEAS SCA FOR OUTER MZS GOING INTO THU
MORN. WVS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE BLO SCA WV HTS EVEN OVR THE OUTER
MZS THU AFTN.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO TS ARTHUR. A SOUTH SWELL COULD REACH AROUND 9 FEET
OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN DUE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST STORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PISCATAQUIS COUNTY TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK
TODAY. THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT
NORTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-032000-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

ANZ050>052-032000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GUILFORD                45.17N 69.39W
07/02/2014                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF GUILFORD.

&&

MARKB

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