Gale Warning 10, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
MARITIMES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE: ONLY VERY MINOR REGIONAL CHGS WERE MADE TO TDY'S FCST
AFTN HI TEMPS BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM NOON OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE THEN ADJUSTED FROM NOON INTO ERLY
EVE. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO THE OTHER NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS
THRU TNGT ATTM.

915 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE REDUCING CLD CVR ACROSS
FAR NE ME WITH SC NOW DISSIPATED OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AND
UPDATING FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU TDY AND TNGT. THE UPDATE OF TEMPS
WAS DONE BY UPDATING LAST NGT'S OVRNGT LOWS FROM OBSVD LOW TEMPS
AND RAISING FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN BY A FEW DEG F BASED ON
PROJECTED AFTN 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTN TEMPS.
LASTLY WE LOWERED OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FOR TNGT IN VLY LCTNS WITH
XPCTD MDTLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
ZERO ACROSS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PD REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF OUR REGION COMMENCING THU AFTN AND CONTG INTO FRI... THE
LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS
DEVELOPING LOW PRES NR THE CAROLINA COAST THU AM LIFTING NEWRD ON
THU TO A PSN OVR THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z FRI...THEN
QUICKLY NEWRD INTO THE MARITIMES BY LATE FRI. THIS TRACK WOULD
TAKE THE STORM CNTR DIRECTLY OVR THE FAR NWRN BAY OF FUNDY OR XTRM
SERN MAINE WHICH FAVORS SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR MIXING INTO OUR
FAR SRN AND SERN AREAS W/ BEST SNOWFALL AXIS SHIFTED FURTHER N AND
W - FROM WSWRN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NERN
AREAS.

THIS SHIFT IN AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL NOW ALSO SUPPORTS PSBL WRNG
CRITERIA OUR FAR WRN AND NWRN ZNS SO FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS
SHIFT WAS TO XTND WATCHES UP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FA. WHERE
THE COLDEST AIR PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR N AND W WILL CONT W/
EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS OF 15-16/1 W/ SNOW RATIOS DROPPING TO 6-8/1
ACROSS THE S AND SE. W/ THE AXIS OF BEST QPF SHIFTED FURTHER N AND
NW...THIS YIELDS PSBL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-16 INCHES ACROSS THE
NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE FA W/ AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO THE S AND
SE... MAIN NEGATING FACTOR WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE FAST MVMNT OF THE STORM SYSTEM THO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO THE
N AND W OF THE STORM TRACK TO SEE A 3-6 HR PD OF HVY SNOWFALL W/
STRONG WAA AND FORCING ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY SEE A WELL-DVLPD NE-
SW ORIENTED DEFORMATION BAND BY LATER THU NGT/ERLY FRI. ACROSS THE
S AND SERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE WE EXPECT THE WARMER AND DRIER
AIR TO MX IN...HAVE CONTD TO ADVERTISE SOME RAIN AND SLEET W/
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS ATTM EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO WRNG LEVELS...

SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE LATER FRI THO FAR NRN
AND NERN AREAS SHOULD CONT TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS INTO FRI AFTN...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES CONTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI NGT W/ SOME
LINGERING LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND W... AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK ERLY FRI NGT...A STRONG UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM
THE W WILL SUPPORT SFC LOW PRES WHICH ATTM IS FCST TO PASS FAIRLY
FAR TO OUR S AND E SAT INTO SAT NGT. HOWEVER TRACK AND THE
SUPPORTING UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA LATER SAT/SAT NGT WILL
PROVIDE ENUF SUPPORT FOR SOME LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL CARRY CHC POPS FROM LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT EVE. ATTM
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A MAJOR STORM THO IT COULD YIELD A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BRISK NW WNDS AND
CHILLY BUT MAINLY DRY CONDS TO THE AREA SUN-MON THEN APPEARS THE
PROGRESSIVE PTRN WILL CONT W/ ANOTHER HEALTHY SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION LATER MON NGT TO PSBLY LATER WED NGT DEPENDING ON THE
FASTER GFS OR SLOWER ECMWF SOLNS. WILL CARRY CHC POPS MON NGT THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PD AND EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL OFF
FROM NR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS SAT TO TEMPS WELL
BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR MON/TUE. TEMPS WILL AGAIN RECOVER TO NR
SEASONAL NORMS BY TUE...

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING NEWRD UP THE COAST WILL SPREAD
IFR CONDS FIRST INTO OUR SRN TAF SITES THU AFTN THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU EVE W/ WDSPRD IFR
CONDS CONTG INTO FRI AM ACROSS TH S AND INTO LATE FRI ACROSS THE
N. MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N FRI NGT W/ MAINLY VFR S.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION
SAT INTO SUN W/ MOST PESSIMISTIC CONDS ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES AS
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW WATCH FOR OUR WATERS FROM LATE THU
THRU FRI AM. CONDS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP BLO GLWS LATE FRI AM
INTO FRI AFTN AS STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ACROSS THE WATERS...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...VJN/KHW
MARINE...VJN/KHW

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