Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST CAE
WRF MODEL AND NSSL WRF INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA 20Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING WEAK
CAP BREAKING DOWN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.9 INCHES. LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED BUT RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH
FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE 30 TO ALMOST 40 PCT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WARM MID
AND LOW LEVELS WITH A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND THE
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER...90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTHERLY 500MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN MOIST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION WANES DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM IN
THE AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS BY SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. WEAK CAP OVER THE
AREA MAY BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
22Z. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-035-036-038-041-102100-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
450 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-020>022-026>029-031-037-102100-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-CALHOUN-
450 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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