Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE MOVING NE TOWARDS THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR
REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DRY
AIR ALOFT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE
INDICATED POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND ARTHUR AND THE UPPER AND
SURFACE TROUGH....REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DRY SURFACE TROUGH COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE QUITE DRY AIR TO FILTER
IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WITH GRADUAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE SOUTH FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINDER OF THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID WEEK...THE E CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SOME WHILE
A SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE  SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR AGS/DNL. CONVECTION MAY
BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
316 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-040930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
316 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.