Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM 0Z TO 4Z PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SQUALL LINE.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING... LIFTING TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 18Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&